El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
Weak 8-1-2 dominating during El Niño often favors a cold to very cold E US, especially SE US. As one who prefers cold, I would want a lot of weak 8-1-2 to keep cold chances the highest.
Back in the 2010s, I analyzed the SE US going back to the 1970s and found that in general, weak left side of MJO diagram, including inside the COD, was coldest, while right side of diagram outside of COD, was warmest. Weak averaged colder than strong for all phases. This was often the case also for a good p
