El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
It would be nice if there were a "wow" reaction icon. Indeed, this newest run has Sep/Oct/Nov at an absolutely insane +2.9/+3.0/+3.2 vs the already pretty insane +2.6/+2.7/+2.9 on the prior run, meaning a warming of 0.3! The prior run to that was "only" at +2.4/+2.5/+2.7. So, it has warmed 0.5 for SON over the last two runs! What's even more interesting is that this new run initialized June at only +0.9 vs the prior run's June prediction of +1.2. But even with that 0.3 cooling for June, it then
