El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
We'll see if it does. I'm educatedly guessing based on model biases and the very warm MC that it will. The GEFS/EPS do have a moderate move through 4/5. Some of the others don't even get it there outside of the circle as of now.
Newly developing Nino events in 1986 (June), 1997 (May), 2002 (May and again in June), and 2004 (May) all had moderate or stronger moves through both phases 4 and 5 during May and/or June.
Looking later: 1976 (Aug/Sep), 1979 (Sep/Oct), 2002 (Aug), and 2009 (
