El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
This is the first time I checked out the CFSv2 weeklies for implied SOI predictions based on Darwin/Tahiti SLP progs. I have no idea how well it can predict these SLPs or if there are any significant biases.
So, fwiw, here's the mean prediction of the last 48 runs of CFSv2 weeklies:
6/2-9: +5
6/9-16: -12
6/16-23: -16
6/23-30: -9
6/30-7/7: -8
7/7-14: -11
These would produce a complete June SOI of ~-9 and a first two weeks of July SOI of ~-9.5.