El Nino 2023-2024
There are signs pointing towards El Niño developing over the summer. The models aren’t very strong with the nino right now, but historically after 2nd and 3rd year Ninas we have seen stronger ninos. After the 3 year Nina ending in 2001 and the 2 year Nina ending in 2009, a moderate or strong El Niño developed! There is a lot of warm water below the surface in the western enso 4 region, these waters are as much as 6 degrees Celsius above normal. It will spread out as it comes up so we won’t see a
I appreciate your work and optimism about a -NAO this winter since I'm also a winter lover and thus hope you're right. Over the last 44 winters, -NAOs (I define as sub -0.25) for DJF have been few and far between:
1984-5: (NAO -0.70) (moderate La Niña) headed down in cycle 21 with limited sunspots averaging only 20/month; this was 20 months before the minimum of Sept 1986
1986-7: (NAO -0.30) (moderate El Niño) very early in cycle 22 four months after the Sept 86 minimum with very limit
