I look at it differently. We all have different takes, preferences, etc. Here’s mine: 1. I prefer BN in all seasons. 2. I don’t believe so much in the idea of “saving” BN as in some cases it is actually the opposite: there’s a correlation and thus BN may predict subsequent BN. 3. During El Niño in the SE, there’s evidence of a partial correlation between a BN Oct and a BN DJF. Check out these 9 KSAV BN (more than 2 BN) Nino Octobers for example:  - 1876, 1885, 1930, 1957, 195