January 2023 Obs/Discussion
With December quickly coming to a disappointing end for many, it's time to move onto January and "peak" winter discussion.
12z gfs on 12/18 shows a vicious New Year's cutter to start the month, lots of 40's and 50's. We'll see if that holds.
I wasn't being sarcastic. However, there's questions as to whether the changes would necessarily play nice for winter enthusiasts (20th and thereafter).
In short, +PNA likely to return. But if the +PNA is only moderately amplified and/or sets into the hemisphere through a warm (relative to season) Canada and a pinched off high Arctic.
Longer ... Not just relying upon the ensemble means of the EPS/GEFs way out there from D10 onward, either. The changes are in the systemic machinery
