January 2019 Discussion
11-12-18
"The current scandinavian ridge should retrograde towards Greenland for the first couple of weeks of December, some significant snows are likely for much of New England. The PNA may struggle to become established this early, however if it can, the northern mid atlantic may join the fray. The blocking pattern should break down mid month, and there will likely be Grinch storm in the vicinity of Christmas, unlike last season.Temperatures should average out near norm
Yes - this is what I was posting a few days ago re: the stratospheric amplification of the MJO signal, hence the propensity for increased warmth/cutters over the Dec 20-Jan 5 period. The MJO is actually in phase 6 right now. RMM plots suffering from rw/kw interference. The ECMWF has been attemping to send the wave into the null phase since p 3, and has been correcting since. The stratospheric driving augments the MJO signal, and there's no physical reason for the ewd propagation to cease.
