With today's 57° high temperature in New York City, along with today's guidance, the probability of December's having an average temperature of 40.0° or above has increased further. The implied probability based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance is now 75%. The most likely range is 40.0°-40.6°. Meanwhile, the 12/28 MJO data is now in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 11th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.858. The amplitude is down from the 12/27 adjusted figure of 3.1
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