December 2018 General Discussion & Observations
New month starts this Saturday, might start this thread now.
Looks to be a stormy and relatively mild first 5 days of the month, however it seems it would not take too much of a change to have one storm squash ridge enough, for the follow-up to be some amount of frozen. We shall see.
With today's 57° high temperature in New York City, along with today's guidance, the probability of December's having an average temperature of 40.0° or above has increased further. The implied probability based on sensitivity analysis applied to the guidance is now 75%. The most likely range is 40.0°-40.6°.
Meanwhile, the 12/28 MJO data is now in. The MJO remained in Phase 5 for the 11th consecutive day with an amplitude of 2.858. The amplitude is down from the 12/27 adjusted figure of 3.1
