February is upon us - pattern change is in order
So we are wrapping up a month that say many highs (Early month Blizzard) and lows (late month TORCH) but we have survived and are in the midst of our stormiest period of the season historically. The pattern looks to be quite active as we enter the month with the PAC reigning supreme. We have a small threat later this week to start the month that could be a refresher of sorts for some and wet for others. After that we look towards 5-7th for a more significant storm coming up the coast. Detail
It's a w2 upwell split (after w1 downwell preconditioning already) so the coupling is quite a bit stronger here. It's not so much temperatures; geopotential height alterations are more important. I think we'll see a fairly rapid response aided partially by MJO and AAM changes later this month, such that cooler air relative to normal begins returning toward the last week of Feb. I'm very much interested in the last week of Feb into early March. I've been on the +NAO winter train from the start, b