KA Winter Outlook 2016-2017
I Hope He Is Dreadfully Wrong
Temps:Well above average
Snowfall:Well Below Av. 4" DCA
Dec:+5
Jan:+4
Feb:+1
Primary analog years:2011-12(corrected)1980-81
Secondaries:1949-50, 1951-52
We talked about 80-81 and the warmth just did not end until spring and he thinks above average will continue thru the fall
Zonal flow will dominate and at times frigid air will make it to the far northern tier. He thinks this will be misdiagnosed several times as moving
I would expect a variable but at times very cold winter with several snowstorms and above average snowfall totals.
The Pacific is shaping up to be zonal and this can invite very strong arctic outbreaks as the Siberian-Alaskan-NW Canada connection tends to be strong as a result.
A dominant feature of the winter is likely to be extreme cold in central Canada and the northern plains states. But I don't see a strong enough ridge-trough couplet to turn this into a 1949-50 style winter over