Tropical Disco 2014 SNE
With the quickly developing strong nino..the TS storm would seem to favor a lower number of storms but more direct hits on the E US coast. With some luck we can get one to run up into New England.
Here's JB's outlook..
Joe Bastardi's tropical outlook. Thinks busy year along East Coast pic.twitter.com/VJAeTigEE6
That was certainly the case in 1991 durng that developing Nino.
But for the most part, El Ninos have been a wasteland for tropical systems up here. The ENSO sweespot for SNE tropical cyclones seems to be weak La Nina or cold-neutral.
2011 (Irene), 1996 (Bertha, Eduard close miss), 1985 (Gloria), 1971 (Doria), 1960 (Donna), 1954 (Edna, Carol), 1944 (Great Atlantic Hurricane), and 1938 (Long Island Express) all fall within weak La Nina or cold-neutral developing ENSO.
Hurricane Bob was