I wanted to illustrate what I meant when I talked about when we need to see a flip and why Jan 1 is a good benchmark for the "oh F we're in trouble" date.   Right now what is coming around xmas is not surprising as it was a common pattern theme in both the good and bad nino years.  Even some of the ones that started out ok with an early snowfall went to crap for the middle to end of December.  Only 2002 and 2009 escaped this fate but both of those are unicorn everything went right in every