Cosgrove mentioned on social media today that he felt like changes were coming after mid-month due to the high configuration in Canada, but that it would take some time.  Honestly, to me things are on schedule if not a week or two ahead of schedule for Nino.  The only thing that surprised me is that fall was so warm.  Also, LC mentioned that the rain returning to the SE was a decent sign that the past regime is changing.  Again, things look pretty benign in the short and medium range.  I am