2023-24 Winter Speculation Thread
Carver's spoke of creating an early winter spec thread recently, and after another day in the 70s in August, I figured why not get the ball rolling. This for general long term talk about the potential winter patterns, etc.
Right now, the EPO has went negative, it's at -12, and is in the East descending phase. In 2021-22 it fell into the negative in May and stayed deeply negative until the following May. So it should descend throughout winter.
Below, average pressure anomalies
Thank you. As I said, I prefer BN temps in all seasons. That’s enough reason for me to root for this month as a whole to average BN in the SE. However, there’s the additional reason that I wrote about in the post you linked, an apparent partial correlation of a BN SE Oct and a BN SE subsequent winter during El Niño. So, whereas having a BN Oct doesn’t of course come close to guaranteeing a BN winter, it appears to mean an increased chance vs if Oct isn’t BN. The models are continuing to signal t
