December 2020 Medium/Long Term Pattern Discussion.
We are hitting well into the window for December discussion. My best event of winter was on December 12th last year and I believe in 2019 it was a December event for the far Eastern areas. That was as the pattern of a very cold November bled into December. To get there this year we are going to have to count on the pattern to switch in December itself. Hints that it may, at least for a short time, as we head into the last few days of November and first week of December.
Re: d10+
Yeah, the MJO is being handled quite differently by the Euro vs American suite....That said, there is a trend to take the MJO in phases 3 and/or 4 - that is a change. The amplitude in which that might happen is the question. That means the Pacific would revert to trying to force a trough into the West. The strongly negative NAO would counterbalance that. Modeling handles those dualing signals differently. The 6z GEFS is connecting the NAO to an eastern ridge. The EPS undercu
