Unfortunately in flow like this, Canada is often the driving force as the impulses in that flow can either help amplify a system or damp it depending on the timing.  So far,  it hasn't been our friend.  Also like you say, there is not a lot of data up there outside of polar orbiting satellite derived stuff so the models often have the details of the flow there wrong.  Hense the jumping from suppressed to storms from run to run.