12z GFS Fantasy Range, hy brid storm brings feet of rain to SNE
Well ladies and gentlemen of New England, it looks like the GFS and most models are bringing the tropical system through the Caribbean Sea then it turns northward in the Central Caribbean Sea as a powerful major hurricane and then rapidly intensifies further over the western Atlantic Ocean east of Fl, NC and VA and dumps close to 6-12" of rain on coastal SNE. Still we have a lot of uncertainty and this will change every run until it becomes more consistent. Stay Tuned!
It may be another 48 hours or so before the models begin to "feel" the drastic changes forecasted in the PNA and NAO, ++, - - , respectively. To me, the meteorological world is upside down if we don't see a very deep long wave trough moving through the CONUS by day 5 with the NAO plummeting and the PNA jumping.
To me the concerns are almost squarely on timing versus whether or not the trough will be deep enough to permit Matthew to ride up the coast into SNE.