Terpeast's 2023-24 Winter Outlook - Overall Grade: C
I put my outlook in a PDF, so I'll put the "tl,dr" here:
There are a lot of mixed signals leading into this winter. But I have seen enough signs to raise my confidence for an interesting winter across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. This year is the best chance for a big winter or a top 10 KU since 2015-16 or even 2009-10.
However, I have also seen other signs that confound the potential for big snowfall, like Hunga Tonga, continuation of a negative PDO base state, and abnormally w
January 6 Update - Slightly Lower Expectations in the lowlands and/or east of Route 15
While I would never cancel an El Nino winter for the mid-Atlantic, as of Jan 6, we've missed a big opportunity in the lowlands to get towards my expectations of an above-climo winter. West of route 15, however, is still very much on track and can meet or even exceed my snowfall forecast. But east of 15 in the low lands and coastal plan, we're facing an uphill battle to even reach climo.
Of course we
