Terpeast's 2023-24 Winter Outlook - Overall Grade: C
I put my outlook in a PDF, so I'll put the "tl,dr" here:
There are a lot of mixed signals leading into this winter. But I have seen enough signs to raise my confidence for an interesting winter across the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast U.S. This year is the best chance for a big winter or a top 10 KU since 2015-16 or even 2009-10.
However, I have also seen other signs that confound the potential for big snowfall, like Hunga Tonga, continuation of a negative PDO base state, and abnormally w
December 11 Update - No change to outlook
New MEI came in at ~0.6 today after a restrengthening of the El Nino. The PDO remains slightly negative with an unfavorable pacific profile dominated by a GOA low.
However, the GOA low should retrograde and the pacific jet retracts sometime between Christmas and Jan 5, while the MJO weakens into COD.
December will likely finish above normal for the Mid-Atlantic, which was to be expected. January and February might end up closer to normal
