SW, US High pressure/temps severely lead us here, relative to time,(warm 2 months = warm +2-4months later here, 2 years = 3rd year, etc, it's like ~68%/50). This warm SW has established since 2000, but really picked up in the last 1.5 years, dominate High pressure despite -PNA, other drivers. I think we will see a streak of warm Winter's, El Nino is the only thing that can save us.