Some Thoughts on the Winter 2021-22 Outlook
It’s still a little early on in the game, but we’re getting to the point where we can start narrowing down what various “pattern drivers” may look like this winter and examine analogs and even some seasonal forecast guidance for clues.
For those who just want the maps, here are my current thoughts on temperature and precip through the winter. I’m lumping March into winter because it’s a month that can still prove to be productive for snow for many areas, and because many analogs are chilly
My thought is that there's blocking early, probably peaking in December, and then it backs off a bit through January and into February with the cold shifting northwest and more of a gradient pattern setting up as the SE ridge flexes. So I think it is cold early in the GL/OV and then is milder mid-winter. Snow may depend on where you are...up in Wisconsin it may be most active when the blocking relaxes, whereas farther south gets more of their snow when it's colder with more blocking.
I thi
