Since 1985, the most extreme ENSO subsurface anomalies for this time of the year, 8/10 (80%) became favored warm/cold ENSO state later that year. 

The CPC on March 12 has put up an El Nino watch for 2026:

Climate Prediction Center: ENSO Diagnostic Discussion

They are giving an 80% chance that August-Sept-Oct (peak Hurricane season) will be El Nino

In 1995, a positive phase to the AMO cycle began, and a major uptick in Atlantic Hurricane activity occurred. 

Since 1995, we have averaged the following number of storms per year in various ENSO states (using the RONI):

El Nino (7 years): 12.1 TS, 5.0 Hurr, 2.6 MH

Neutral (11 years): 16.1 TS, 8.0 Hurr, 3.4 MH

La Nina (13 years): 17.4 TS, 8.4 Hurr, 4.3 MH

Climate Prediction Center - Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI)

El Nino has been associated with much lower activity, and that occurs back to 1950 and before. 

Since 1995, Strongest 3 El Nino's (ASO>+1.2): (3 years): 10.3 TS, 3.7 Hurr, 1.7 MH

Since 1995, Weakest 4 El Nino's (ASO<+1.1): (4 years): 13.5 TS, 6.0 Hurr, 3.3 MH

So, there has been a pretty big difference between the El Nino being weaker or stronger for the Hurricane season in terms of total activity. It's important to monitor ENSO going forward, current projections are probably right around +1.0 ASO RONI. 

AMO

CPC AMO Index stopped updating January 2023

I made a raw and smoothed graph of the AMO 1995 to Jan 2023:

Raw

Smoothed

In Summer/Fall 2023, the Atlantic was record warm, and then Summer/Fall 2024 was warmer than that. They were the #2 and #1 AMO Seasons on record, so the trend continues to be Up-general, although the 2025 Season was much colder Atlantic SSTs. Record warm SSTs in 2023 helped 20 Named Storms occur (4th highest all time) in a +1.1c ASO El Nino. Last season (2025) was a colder AMO in Weak La Nina, and had 13 Named Storms, 4 Major Hurricanes. 

Anomalies in a bunch

Something that we have seen in the past few seasons is Top 1% Rapid Intensification with certain storms. 

2023 - Lee

2024 - Milton (honorable mention to Beryl, the earliest Cat 5 on record)

2025 - Erin and Mellisa 

What are some other indicators to how active the season will be? 

April-May Atlantic Sea-level pressure

Since 1995, the most active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons minus the least active Atlantic Hurricane Seasons, have this preceding April-May sea-level pressure anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere

-AO and -NAO in April-May precedes more active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

+AO and +NAO in April-May precedes less active Atlantic Hurricane seasons

Atlantic SSTs

Current global SSTA [time sensitive]

Never too early to start discussing! Thoughts?

Related Discussions:

WV loop above will continue to update and stay current.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

Northwestern Gulf of America:
A trough of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Development is not expected during the next day or so while the 
trough remains inland.  However, the system could re-emerge over the 
northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, and 
environmental conditions there are marginally conducive for the 
formation of a short-lived tropical storm on Wednesday into 
Thursday.

Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, interests across southern 
and eastern Texas and portions of Louisiana and Mississippi should 
prepare for periods of intense rainfall over the next several days 
which could produce widespread, life-threatening flash, urban, and 
river flooding. Gusty winds and coastal flooding are also possible 
along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, and Tropical Storm 
Watches or Warnings could be required on Tuesday.  Additional 
information on this system can be found in products issued by your 
local National Weather Service Forecast Office or NHC Key Messages.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake

https://www.clarksfuneral.ca/obituaries/Roger-James-Smith?obId=47411042

tcac.pdf

Climo:

10/11-20 TCG:

10/21-31 TCG:

• My location on the SW coast of Jamaica was well inside the RMW (radius of maximum winds) and got the eyewall’s inner right-front quadrant.
• The SE edge of the eye apparently grazed my location, temporarily bringing reduced wind speeds, improved visibility, and a marked shift in wind direction.
• My minimum pressure was 926.0 mb. While this might seem high, the report discusses how it actually makes sense, given recon data and the fact that I was probably a few miles from the absolute center.
• MELISSA's winds were absolutely ferocious—the most intense I've witnessed in 84 hurricanes. And the resultant wind damage was spectacular. This was a truly rare specimen.

This is a preliminary version of this report which I rushed to completion because of time-sensitive requests for the data. In the next couple of weeks, I'll be releasing an expanded version with plentiful damage pics.

Josh Morgerman
iCyclone

Include any named storms already in the books by 06z June 7th in your total (as of now, count is 0/0/0). 

1991-2020 average values 14/7/3 ... 2025 seasonal forecasts from various experts average 17/9/4 (so far). I will include a few of these as of June 7 as non-entries for ranking against our forecasts (without changing our contest ranks). 

I extended the entry deadline based on the situation as of 06z June 8. You can edit or revise any entries up to final deadline (11th 06z), no need to bring attention to edits as I won't be trying to create a table of entries until deadline is passed. 

Boards.ie weather forum and Net-weather (UK) will be invited to participate. Ranks will be provided (a) over all entries and (b) within forums, or fora if anyone here is a Latin purist. 2024 winner was Kirkcaldy Weather of Net-weather.

Good luck !

HMP 

AL, 11, 2025101000, , BEST, 0, 444N, 334W, 40, 998, SS, 34, NEQ, 20, 50, 50, 30, 1012, 190, 20, 55, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, KAREN, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, TRANSITIONED, alB62025 to al112025,

The forecast for this wave is complicated, with more implications for land than our central Atlantic cherry. The signal for development is not as strong as the Atlantic cherry, but this morning there is a modest amount of convection.

The key to this wave and its possible risk to land is that it is likely to stay weak as it pushes across the northern Leeward Islands, bringing rain and gusty winds, but it finds a potentially more favorable environment for development in the southwest Atlantic. While the GFS has led the way in signaling development, in its latest run it consolidates both waves in five days off near the Bahamas.

Meanwhile, the Euro, which was more bearish originally, keeps both waves separate.

It is critical to see how the upper level pattern over the east coast develops, and whether the strength and orientation is enough to kick both waves out to sea or create an east coast threat. This one is definitely worth watching. 

There has been a strong cross guidance signal for days that a central Atlantic wave will develop. The models have actually been quite robust with this wave once it develops, in similar fashion to the rapidly intensifying Gabrielle.

The AI ensembles, which have done a particularly good job sniffing the environment out, are particularly strong. Now, while the majority of guidance turns this out to sea without threatening any land masses, the amplitude and timing of a trough in the coming week will determine the eventual evolution, along with where this develops. I expect this to develop first if both waves develop. 

I’m sharing - and looking for feedback on - a project I’ve been working on this summer. Its origins were an idea I’ve had for nearly 20 years - to create a platform where accurate information is elevated and showcased and helps improve the medium-range forecast information available to the general public. My idea was always to start with hurricanes, since forecasts are “easier” to measure for accuracy.

https://hurricanehive.com/

Tldr; 

For anyone who wants to create medium-range forecasts: I built tools to create hurricane forecasts and then get accuracy assessments (alongside NHC and some computer models (hopefully more soon).

For the general pubic (think of your friends and family): I also have put work into synthesizing the information into clear, digestible, hype-free forecast products. I think there is a serious information gap between the information available that can help people understand the medium-range risks and what they consume - increasingly through social media or weather apps that are very good at hourly / short-term forecasts. (yes, I am using AI - more on that below).

I had time this summer and set out building it, which has been fun. If I get traction, I am want to extend this to a year-round product/service. Of course, I picked the tropical season of 2025, which has been devoid of long-track landfall threats…

But I would love feedback - if you want to sign up and try the forecasting tools, you have options to keep them to yourselves or make them available for the public. I have the jobs to calculate accuracy in place, and will build out the front-end in the coming week or so. Initially I thought about leaning into a “leader board” approach, but don’t want that to scare people away from participating. I’d l love your ideas. And hopefully there will be more to track...

For all you weather geeks, whether you want to forecast or not.. the entire storm archive back to 1851 is here, along with tools to search storms and create collections (if you register). I can also generate analog storms.

How the forecasting works:

•  when you register you can indicate you want to forecast (and whether you want to share them or not)
• Under /forecast - you can create a new forecast for each storm within 4 hours of the latest storm position update (so after 11 AM ET you have until 3). 
• You can enter forecast points for any of the standard plots up to 120 hours and add an optional landfall point.

Thanks for looking/listening and feedback.

More (from my FAQ):

 

The wave, focused near 30W, is most likely still a few days away from consolidating and kicking off the process of tropical genesis, but with a strong model signal from operational/ensemble/AI models, and the wave producing much more convection than the failed development of 91L, this one looks like it will become a TC eventually. 

There are still some headwinds, figuratively and literally. In the image above you can see stable air to the northwest of the wave. Further west, there is wind shear evident with what little convection being blown over. Long term though, once this wave is able to consolidate, it will have a chance to intensify. 

Long way away from that however. 

Feel free to share your stories and reflections here. 

This area of potential has been much more interesting than 95L, and has been for a while now for the reasons below. Yesterday most probably sat up as the happy hour GFS showed a strong system attempt to develop in the wake of 95L off the same frontal boundary, this time getting shunted back into the US. Well, although that run of the GFS was way too aggressive, the signal for some sort of follow up development has been on the guidance for a few days now. It's not terribly hard to see why, as the environment looks at least marginally favorable for some development. 

Vorticity

First--the frontal boundary is usually good for getting some vorticity spin up. This fits with climatology. So if something is far enough off the coast there should be some sort of spin that develops in the coming days. Both models pick up on this in the medium range. 

This is not enough for TC genesis. Which leads to the second favorable factor.

Instability

While the tropical Atlantic has been incredibly stable so far this season...

There has been no such issue off the East Coast...in fact, instability has been extremely high. 

What that tells me is that anything that does have spin and can develop an area of low pressure will have a chance to generate convection, which will only help with TC genesis odds as long as the system isn't hugging land the entire time. 

SSTa

Not much analysis needed here. I expect the the southwest Atlantic to be a hotbed of activity this season because that's where the heat is. Any low is going to have a shot with enough time and space to become tropical in this SSTa regime. 

Shear

The key inhibitor here is shear. Often times with these frontal boundary systems near the coast you have shear and drier air that is lurking. That comes with the territory with the frontal boundary. Here it is unclear how favorable a shear environment this potential system will find, but guidance is hinting at a window of lower shear later this week taking hold. 

What makes this particularly interesting is the steering pattern. While the outcome is different in terms of where the area of vorticity goes, the pattern evolution is the same. In the wake of 95L a ridge builds in and traps whatever could develop along the coast. That's something to legitimately watch. Maybe not closely, yet, but at least with a casual eye.  

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is likely to form by the early to 
middle part of next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and 
the adjacent portions of Central America.  Thereafter, gradual 
development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression 
could form as the system moves slowly to the north or northwest 
over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and across the Gulf of 
Mexico through the end of next week.  Regardless of development, 
this system is expected to produce heavy rains over portions of 
Central America during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. 
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

We've been tracking this for a while, and as I mentioned before our favorable homebrew region pattern that led to several invests off the East Coast and Hurricane Francine in the Gulf due to stalled frontal boundaries and trough interaction has evolved this week to a Central American Gyre (CAG) pattern characterized by broad cyclonic flow over the eastern Pacific, Central American land mass, and western Caribbean. 

The result is a growing amount of vorticity which we're starting to see in the region. This is an analysis at 850mb. 

As a trough digs into the region, we get a favorable setup for upper divergence, which aids the development of convection, which will likely continue to pulse until we can start seeing a complex of storms become more persistent. 

It's unclear if today's convection is the start of this process.

TCs that come out of CAGs usually start as broad systems that slowly develop. That's partly a function of being in a broader cyclonic flow. However, once the TC establishes itself, depending on the intensification environment they can have a variety of upper bound or lower bound ceilings. 

There's strong cross guidance support in both the operational models and ensembles that something develops in the Western Caribbean or Gulf in the coming days, and is drawn north toward the U.S. coast. 

There are a lot of options on the table. First, with intensity, it's unclear how quickly any potential TC will organize to take advantage of what looks like a favorable environment for intensification. The GFS on balance has been more aggressive, while the Euro has been least aggressive. 

Secondly, with track, while it looks like the central and eastern Gulf are looking most likely to be in a possible landfall zone, there are questions about what happens with the steering pattern both before and after a landfall. The general pieces on the board are identified--a western ridge and eastern U.S. trough, but it's unclear how timing and amplitude will shake out and influence the eventual track. Here's a trend gif at 500mb looking at the GFS and Euro respectively. 

Bottom line is there is a lot of uncertainty with this system. While genesis is likely, we still have questions on eventual intensity, landfall location, and overall track afterward, which could impact the central, southern, or eastern sections of the country. 

Given the broad and likely moisture laden characteristics of the system, surge and rainfall are likely to be significant impacts. Folks all along the Gulf coast should be watching this closely.