Tennessee Valley Latest Topics

Spring 2026 Pattern Discussion Thread

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 15:08:20 +0000

Sure looks like a severe signal showing up between 200-240 hours.

TV Severe Weather2025-?

Fri, 17 Jan 2025 20:20:30 +0000

Starting a new severe thread since the last one was back into 2021,plus we want to keep severe out of winter threads unless we get a severe threat at any time.

But this looks like a potential active season right now ATM.Right now the IO is fixing to come pretty active the next few days in which should/ could possibly strenghten LaNina upcoming the next weeks ahead as we head into March.

So post your Forecast and OBS from now on here please

February 2026

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 12:40:25 +0000

February is about all there is to talk about in the medium range now.

State of the atmosphere at the end of January, 2026:

Winter 25/26 General Obs

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 12:31:36 +0000

Thought I would create a general obs thread for winter in case anyone sees some snow this AM and of course for the rest of the winter.

@Knoxtron looks like some temps are between 34 and 36 down your way. Some radar returns down in. NE Alabama look snow-like:

Wouldn't be surprised if you, or John, or one of our Cumberland county folks get a quick dusting.

Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events

Fri, 20 Dec 2013 02:28:56 +0000

I thought this might be a good thread while we wait on Old Man Winter to unleash his hounds. Links and personal accounts welcome. I am putting this up. I'll work in the evening over the weekend to add a few of my own personal favorites. The ideas here is to get stories from all of the state.

Fall/Winter Banter - Football, Basketball, Snowball?

Tue, 22 Sep 2020 00:36:51 +0000

Banter, gibberish and hail Mary clown maps, all welcome here.

1/23/26-1/25/26 Winter Storm Thread

Mon, 19 Jan 2026 18:28:55 +0000

January 23-25, 2026 Winter Storm thread. Things are heating up so we decided to go ahead and make a dedicated thread to this upcoming winter threat. Appreciate everyone’s input

Jan 30th-February 1st 2026 Arctic Blast/ULL Snow OBS Thread.

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 16:13:45 +0000

28 degrees, mostly cloudy skies. Snow is predicted to start here at 2pm then a break for a while before it redevelops.

January 2026 Short/Medium Range Thread

Thu, 25 Dec 2025 19:45:11 +0000

We are looking into early January now on modeling. With a potentially potent cold shot coming for the first few days of the year. With any luck, the Pac jet extends towards the polar regions, and then drops back towards the equator, which should get rid of the Aleutian ridge and help get a +PNA look.

The GEFS wants nothing to do with that, it keeps the AR and hooks the NAO with Atlantic ridging. The GFS gets rid of the AR but has no -NAO at all, and no +PNA. The GEPS has a PNA ridge and -NAO with an eastern trough. The AIGFS gets rid of the AR and has the -NAO with a small eastern trough and looks like it's starting a +pna at the end. The Euro AI builds a tall PNA ridge by the end but it's scoured out the cold over Canada with much AN temps, but we are slightly BN here by the end. The EPS has a slight +PNA at the end, and a slight trough east and the AR was gone.

So, outside of the GFS/GEFS we could be building towards a good pattern for us around Jan 8th-10th. The heart of winter is Jan 15th to Feb 15th. If we get to peak climo with the +PNA/-NAO look that's about all you can ask for.

1-30/2-1-26 Arctic Blast, ULL Snow Event

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 05:58:08 +0000

Figured we may as well have a thread for this. All modeling except the Ukie and ICON have basically 2+ inches of snow from the Western side of the Plateau and points east. With several being more wide spread and much heavier.

Extreme cold is also a story. We could have 20-1 or even higher ratios. The Euro has Saturday afternoon temps 30 to 35 degrees BN across the state. We could have snow falling with wind chills below 0, and if the GFS is to be believed, incredible snowfall totals, especially for NC border counties.

The event is basically 3 days away from beginning. Let's reel something in!

Jan 24 - 26 2026 Ice, sleet, and for a lucky few..... snow storm Observations Thread

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 13:26:27 +0000

January 15th-17th 2024 Arctic Blast/Snow Event

Thu, 11 Jan 2024 10:28:04 +0000

The Arctic blast is coming and there's a pretty good shot that at least the western half of the forum seeing several inches of snow. Time to fire up a thread so long range discussion can proceed as normal in the January thread. Don't have the ratio'd Euro but I suspect it's better than the 10:1.

06z GFS

00z Euro

December 2025 Short/Medium Range Forecast Thread

Mon, 17 Nov 2025 21:55:32 +0000

We are now into December with the OP runs. The first 7 to 10 days of December are likely to be warm, with a possible brief cold shot or two. After that, we have some potential factors that would introduce cold into the pattern. A cooperative MJO, a well place EPO ridge, a weaker than normal, if not split, SPV, all look possible as we head into the period of December 15thish towards the end of the month.

See Carvers Weeklies post in the fall thread for what December looks like when the Euro has the MJO moving through more favorable areas.

Fall/Winter 2025-26 WX Discussion Thread

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 20:57:58 +0000

The first NCAA football weekend of the year. This fall appears to be beginning at or below normal for temps. I am sure we will have some warmer temps as fall progresses, but what a great way to start it. Carry on

December 11th - 12th clipper potential

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 00:10:13 +0000

Let's see what happens.

December 4th through 5th 2025

Thu, 04 Dec 2025 20:59:23 +0000

I volunteer as tribute for an obs thread for this one.

11-9/11-10 Early Season Snow Obs.

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 15:59:04 +0000

It started snowing yesterday evening, and I had around 1/2 inch overnight. Currently light snow and 28. Waiting on the slug of moisture with the S/W in Kentucky to rotate through this afternoon.

2025-2026 Winter Speculation Thread

Sun, 08 Jun 2025 22:13:48 +0000

Preliminary ideas. I look for a second winter of La Nina. Extended summer looks likely with a sharp turn to winter later in November, though the CANSIPS argues for an early fall. The Euro seasonal has summer lasting through fall. A 3-4 week period in December and January could be frigid. The QBO is now falling and has reached negative territory. Oddly, the data shows the QBO dipped negative briefly (and sharply) during December 2024 out of nowhere - interesting. To me, that looks like a mistake w/ the +/- symbol. Either way, it is falling now as we hit summer. By December, we should be hitting rock bottom. I think the stage is set for another frigid stretch sometime after or around mid-December. Sorry, I haven't been on for a bit. I have been taking a break and recharging. I have not looked at the EPO yet.

Spring 2025 Med/Long Range Discussion

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 06:51:28 +0000

The GFS joined the Euro with some potential snowy hi-jinks to welcome met spring. As was noted, virtually all decent March/April snows over the last 50 years featured a cooperative or at least non-hostile pacific and MJO in Phase 2/3. It looks like we may be hanging out in 2 around the time the snowfall is showing up on the models.

Historic Tennessee Valley Severe Weather Events

Thu, 27 Feb 2025 12:29:57 +0000

My old thread got archived, so I made a new one.

Useful Weather Links - Tennessee Valley Style Updated Links Nov 2018

Sat, 14 Dec 2013 04:27:15 +0000

Put your weather links in this thread. That way, as we add new people to this region, they have places to go and learn. Plus, it gives us all a quick reference. As a general rule, most of us abide by "read more and post less." However, for this forum to work...people have to participate. When making a comment, just be sure to add some weather expertise to your discussion(even if it is limited). Instead of saying, "Boy, it is raining outside." Try this, "The National Weather Service radar is showing heavy returns over middle Tennessee." Instead of saying, "The weather models are showing a torch," try this..."The GFS is showing warm temps at hour n." Read as much as you can. Google is a great tool. And don't be afraid to ask questions. That's how all of us learned to get to our varying levels of expertise.

Last update: November 2018

Winter 2024/2025 February Thread

Thu, 23 Jan 2025 17:28:19 +0000

I figured it was time to start the next monthly winter thread. Let the speculation/discussion begin.

Winter 24/25 Observations

Thu, 21 Nov 2024 20:35:11 +0000

I hesitate to ruin this winter since the last obs thread I started was in late 2015… looking forward to pics of carpets of white…

2/19-2/20 Miller A Magic?

Sat, 15 Feb 2025 20:34:27 +0000

Can we get a true Miller A pass with no warm nose? Trends today are good!

Flooduary 2025

Mon, 10 Feb 2025 00:18:26 +0000

And so begin our semi-annual February floods:

The firehose is poised and aimed. The creeks and streams runneth over. Puddles gather on low lying areas. Dams are pumping out 2-3 generators.

The Holston River in west Kingsport this past Friday (2/7)

The Obed today 2/9

MRX: