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Ji

The Psuhoffman Storm

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Sure seems like a warning is needed based on the 00Z nam and rgem. I think the latter's qpf may be better.

It'll be hoisted after the kids are halfway to school tomorrow morning. :arrowhead:

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Did LWX ever explained why they chopped an inch or 2 off our forecast? Nothing in the discussion.

In my forecast they went from 5-10" to 3-7" so i have no clue nor was there anything in the discussion about it.

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Did LWX ever explained why they chopped an inch or 2 off our forecast? Nothing in the discussion.

Could this be why.....

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION

TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO

EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A

PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW

LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING

INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR

HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE

IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL

TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS

STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE

TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE

TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT

ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion --

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I like storms where LWX plays catch-up. Those are always good.

this was yesterday.. heh, i thought it was like 2 days ago. it takes a while sometimes.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

318 PM EST MON JAN 24 2011

<snip>

SINCE THERE/S NOT MUCH DYNAMIC FORCING...LIFT DOESNT SEEM STELLAR AND WUD BE MORE TEMPTED TO GO LWR.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=8&glossary=0&highlight=off

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Hello and welcome to the forum! I guess you've seen enough of the various...errrr..."personalities" here by now! But seriously, a good place for weather discussion and information despite some of the other crap that flies.

Heck, I have to admit the snow weenie in me was almost taken in my Mitchnick's et al's joking about the RGEM! Sort of like the end of that movie "The Sting", where everyone is taken for a ride. To paraphrase the Paul Newman character, "I thought you were reciting the real GGEM, myself!"

Thanks for the welcome. Much appreciated. Yeah...this forum is better than most TV shows for crying out loud. Only Caps hockey or WVU sports can trump it.....well...I think anyway. :lol:

As a side note, I was in here from time to time last year on the old Eastern site. I tell ya...while the two greatest storms raged last February, I spent a week in Disney with the family on the Crackberry following every last comment in here on thudersnow to jebwalks to new deform bands, etc I was sooooo jealous! Anyway, let's get that snow in here soon!

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They probably see no harm in waiting another hour or two to upgrade any watches to warnings in our area :popcorn: I can't wait to hear Marty Ass's explanation in the morning concerning his 1" forecast from today.:thumbsup: Good Ole WJZ Baltimore

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Could this be why.....

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION

TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO

EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A

PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW

LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING

INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR

HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE

IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL

TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS

STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE

TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE

TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT

ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion --

That's how precip usually ends :)

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Could this be why.....

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

-- Changed Discussion --ANY RAIN/SNOW MIX WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE TO START WILL TRANSITION

TO SNOW DURING THE MORNING AS THE WINTER STORM WARNING GOES INTO

EFFECT. ALL SNOW WILL BE DELAYED EAST OF THE BLUE

RIDGE...ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 AND TO THE SOUTHEAST OF

THERE. BUT WHEN IT DOES SNOW...IT MAY COME DOWN FAIRLY HARD FOR A

PERIOD OF TIME. WE WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW

LINE SETS UP. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AM BECOMING

INCREASINGLY CONVINCED OF A COLDER SOLUTION WHICH WOULD FAVOR

HEAVY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER EAST. WILL HAVE TO SEE IF 00Z

GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS IDEA. OBVIOUSLY A SMALL CHANGE

IN THE RAIN/SNOW LINE CAN HAVE A LARGE IMPACT REGARDING SNOWFALL

TOTALS OVER THE BALTIMORE/WASHINGTON AREA. IN ADDITION...THIS

STORM WILL LIKELY EXHIBIT BANDING CHARACTERISTICS AND WE/LL HAVE

TO TRY TO PINPOINT WHERE BANDING OCCURS WHICH WILL ENHANCE

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. EITHER WAY...FOLKS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR

SIGNIFICANT IMPACT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING RUSH HOUR DUE

TO SNOW. SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS A DRY SLOT

ADVANCES THROUGH THE CWA LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.-- End Changed Discussion --

the precip distribution hasn't changed on any of the models up to now, and nothing this evening suggest a dry slot

they better send their dry sluts home tonight over at LWX and start looking at the computer models and the models in their office

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the precip distribution hasn't changed any any of the models to now, this evening, suggest a dry slot

they better send their dry sluts home tonight over at LWX and start looking at the computer models and the models in their office

Maybe the dry sluts could help out Ji and his basement?

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