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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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Ji, please take a few minutes, a deep breath, compose yourself, and then come back for the rest of the 0z suite. We have a lot of other guidance to come in and we will know soon if the NAM was onto something or not. Either way its really not that big of a difference, its within normal error for precip.

no, no

I can't make it to the Washington Zoo tomorrow due to the wx but JI is close enough

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Gaithersburg is now lower

Last Update: 9:02 pm EST Jan 25, 2011

Wednesday: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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Ji, please take a few minutes, a deep breath, compose yourself, and then come back for the rest of the 0z suite. We have a lot of other guidance to come in and we will know soon if the NAM was onto something or not. Either way its really not that big of a difference, its within normal error for precip.

Even if it's "on to something" and we "only" get between .75 to 1.00 QPF, we'd should be jumping for joy. How much snow were we expecting 36 hours ago?

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Ji, wander over the NE thread (but don't post) and just read over there if you want to see what they are saying about what may have been off on it (and they're saying a lot). They've got a lot more skin in that run than we do...

As for us, that was a "bad run" that still insists on leaving enough qpf around here for a general 6-10 inch snowfall with a few lollis of 12. I like our spot, unless there is something going on with the guidance that we just don't see yet.

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"only" .78. Don't become annoying, seriously. Not tonight.

randy. I know what you mean bro but the almost every model run the past 3-4 days has given us 1.00 to 1.25. So to go from that to .78 is annoying although i think the NAM is wrong. Thats a big shift in one run.

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ehh he'll probably get deformation'ed one way or another and get there even after all his whining

There is more whining per capita along the Manchester - Frederick - Leesburg arc than in any other region. Yet every single time some huge band parks over them for hours and hours and they end up with the highest totals.

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It is having feedback issues with the thunderstorms over Florida.

yes.. that must be it.

i think many would be unhappy to contemplate how easy it would be to bust this wide open. fingers crossed.. the models are good right?

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Gaithersburg is now lower

Last Update: 9:02 pm EST Jan 25, 2011

Wednesday: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

Yup, NWS saw this run and now they are bailing! OMG :( :(

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randy. I know what you mean bro but the almost every model run the past 3-4 days has given us 1.00 to 1.25. So to go from that to .78 is annoying although i think the NAM is wrong. Thats a big shift in one run.

the problem with you JI is that everything has got to be some little, competitive exercise

who the he!! do you think you're competing with? you'll never be happy with that mentality

just sit back and be glad my prediction for the winter looks to bust and appreciate whatever fall

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Gaithersburg is now lower

Last Update: 9:02 pm EST Jan 25, 2011

Wednesday: A chance of snow before 9am, then rain and snow between 9am and 3pm, then snow after 3pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 7 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. North wind between 11 and 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

They did the same thing for Reston.

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There is no reason to change the forecast, the model stillhas a great track of the 500h low. The storm still is liable to produce somewhere in the .80 to 1.1 QPF range and pinpointing who gets what is probably beyond what the models can do perfectly. I like the CWG forecast pretty well.

yeah but did you see the 6z nam?

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Maybe I don't know exactly where Leesburg is, but this is how I see NAM total precip from today's runs for Leesburg:

6z: 0.25-0.5

12z: very close to a sharp precip gradient...in the 0.5-0.75" range I think

18z: 1-1.25"

Tonight's 0z: 0.75-1"

So, sounds pretty good to me.

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