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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji
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What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with that storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos.

They simply have higher confidence where the warning has been issued. Give it some time. They will likely come east.

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What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos.

They are just being cautious after the failed WSW in Dec.

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What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos.

So they wait for the 0Z runs to come in and hoist the warnings if all is on par. What's the difference?

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So they wait for the 0Z runs to come in and hoist the warnings if all is on par. What's the difference?

I don't know. There probably isn't one -- except lead time perhaps so the message gets out in the 6 p.m. news so people know before they go to bed. I just sort of think people around here are not taking the potential of 6 inches in a brief time seriously. Everyone I talk to about the possible storm, seems to be dismissive of it and not worried. Maybe they are right, but this could turn ugly tomorrow afternoon if it starts sticking on roads fast.

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Hmmmm.....

Tonight: A slight chance of snow after 3am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 20%.

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

......and no warning yet. They would have been more than safe to extend those warnings to the initial watch area at least in my opinion.

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HPC forecast for Frederick...

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow before 9am, then snow. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 35. North wind between 6 and 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.

Wednesday Night: Snow, mainly before midnight. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 25. North wind around 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible.

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What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos.

The NWS world is divided into forecast periods. They will issue a WSW when the real accumulating stuff is no more than two or three periods from verifying,

I think that east of the Blue Ridge, the roads will not have accumulating snow until close to sunset so around 10 pm or 11 pm is when they need to pull the

trigger or not.

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The NWS world is divided into forecast periods. They will issue a WSW when the real accumulating stuff is no more than two or three periods from verifying,

I think that east of the Blue Ridge, the roads will not have accumulating snow until close to sunset so around 10 pm or 11 pm is when they need to pull the

trigger or not.

I understand that. But they also can do it it earlier if they are confident enough. Last year, I am pretty sure the Warning for Feb. 5 went up the Wednesday afternoon before a storm slated to start Friday morning. Why? They wanted people to know the potential for a big-time disruptive event. This is nothing like that, but it still could be disruptive and seems like confidence is there for at least 5 inches. They are usually fairly trigger happy to hoist warnings around here for even marginal snow events so i am just surprised at the caution, that's all.

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With the models trending colder and the QPF being over 1 inch I get the feeling that everyone is being very gun-shy about this storm. It would seem as is if everyone feels like they have been burned soo badly so many times this season in the MA that they would rather call it low and have it go high than the reverse. Anyone else sensing this or is it just me?

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With the models trending colder and the QPF being over 1 inch I get the feeling that everyone is being very gun-shy about this storm. It would seem as is if everyone feels like they have been burned soo badly so many times this season in the MA that they would rather call it low and have it go high than the reverse. Anyone else sensing this or is it just me?

The difference here (outside of Dec 26 and even that event to some extent) never had this level of precip area wide. None of the models within 24 hours had such a large event for the area. This is a public safety issue with the timing of this event. I can tell you for a fact that none of my fellow employee's had any idea more than some rain and flurries were incoming. The evening news cast did nothing to change that opinion either.

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I understand that. But they also can do it it earlier if they are confident enough.

It makes sense for them to wait until the last moment that allows them to be compliant with NWS policy.

This storm is not set in stone or in a slot or chugging down the rails. Big features, yes, but banding

and deformation zones can't be known until seen on radar and on animated water vapor loop.

Everyone has a smart phone these days if they want one; it takes something special to be caught unaware in a middle sized snow.

For everyone else, no harm in hoisting a toilet paper alert for those that use it.

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With the models trending colder and the QPF being over 1 inch I get the feeling that everyone is being very gun-shy about this storm. It would seem as is if everyone feels like they have been burned soo badly so many times this season in the MA that they would rather call it low and have it go high than the reverse. Anyone else sensing this or is it just me?

It is a huge public safety issue. A Baltimore area radio forecast just called for mainly rain with a chance of snow in the evening little to no accumulation. People have no idea what is coming. The winter storm watch was not reported. I predict carnage on the roads just becasue a lot of people with no clue will be out and about during rush hour thinking they will encounter rain. The NWS should move quick. A warning will at least get the attention of the local news.

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I understand that. But they also can do it it earlier if they are confident enough. Last year, I am pretty sure the Warning for Feb. 5 went up the Wednesday afternoon before a storm slated to start Friday morning. Why? They wanted people to know the potential for a big-time disruptive event. This is nothing like that, but it still could be disruptive and seems like confidence is there for at least 5 inches. They are usually fairly trigger happy to hoist warnings around here for even marginal snow events so i am just surprised they at the caution, that's all.

I understand your concern, but having a Warning up or not having a Warning up does not determine if it is going to snow or not snow. Your multiple posts are coming across as someone who does not understand the simple logic of my statements. I know that is not the case for you and I see your point, but no need to beat it to death so to speak. If by early tomorrow morning Warnings are not issues and you look at radar and see the storm barreling down on us then you have a more legitimate case to post your concern. For now try and mix patience with your excitement and concerns. Best of luck to you in getting some major snow.

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It is a huge public safety issue. A Baltimore area radio forecast just called for mainly rain with a chance of snow in the evening little to no accumulation. People have no idea what is coming. The winter storm watch was not reported. I predict carnage on the roads just becasue a lot of people with no clue will be out and about during rush hour thinking they will encounter rain. The NWS should move quick. A warning will at least get the attention of the local news.

This is Maryland. Roads will be carnage WSW or not.

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