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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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this euro run thought would give a big snow to areas that are in the snow drought also like central PA so how does seasonal trend account for that?

first, you're wrong

check ABE mos, mainly rain

second, I am talking and have been talking all along (check my old posts) about DCA/BWI

areas just to our east have had their share of snow as you know

look, you can try to pick it apart, but until it snows and proves me wrong its all just model progs vs. reality

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h5 is fairly similar in track to 12z, about 6 hrs faster and a little weaker overall. closes off slower and passes a little nw of earlier thru central va toward 108. by 114 it's pretty well stacked with the low and things look similar around here for the rest at h5.

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first, you're wrong

check ABE mos, mainly rain

second, I am talking and have been talking all along (check my old posts) about DCA/BWI

areas just to our east have had their share of snow as you know

look, you can try to pick it apart, but until it snows and proves me wrong its all just model progs vs. reality

I am not talking about allentown I am talking about Harrisburg area, State College, down into central WV. These areas have been in the snow drought and this euro run does give them snow. Surface temps are around 33 degrees for most of the storm in those locations with 850's below 0. They could say the same thing right now, that the seasonal trend is for them to not get snow, but somehow their seasonal trend does not apply because its only Baltimore and Washington that count as if the atmoshphere has a grudge against us right now. You had a good case originally but you are starting to sound a little overboard now.

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h5 is fairly similar in track to 12z, about 6 hrs faster and a little weaker overall. closes off slower and passes a little nw of earlier thru central va toward 108. by 114 it's pretty well stacked with the low and things look similar around here for the rest at h5.

we need cold air

that's not something that will magically show up on the scene so we need a perfect track to pull it off and that's all there is to it

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Frankly, if the GFS holds tomorrow and the Euro caves it will be time to panic over a possible Miller B that will probably undoubtedly screw D.C. If the GFS trends toward the Euro and it holds tomorrow, it will be time to panic over Rain and warm air. If they both hold serve, no need to panic until Sunday. If after Sunday they are still at loggerheads, it will be time to panic regardless. Until then, enjoy there is just a storm that could end up as anything still at this point.

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we need cold air

that's not something that will magically show up on the scene so we need a perfect track to pull it off and that's all there is to it

im not terribly optimistic imby. it's one bad solution or the other it seems. unless i believe the nesis 5 ukmet track, and that's lol on a few levels.

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I am not talking about allentown I am talking about Harrisburg area, State College, down into central WV. These areas have been in the snow drought and this euro run does give them snow. Surface temps are around 33 degrees for most of the storm in those locations with 850's below 0. They could say the same thing right now, that the seasonal trend is for them to not get snow, but somehow their seasonal trend does not apply because its only Baltimore and Washington that count as if the atmoshphere has a grudge against us right now. You had a good case originally but you are starting to sound a little overboard now.

I have never spoken of any area other than DCA/BWI and you saying I'm going overboard doesn't make it true

and it has nothing to do with an atmospheric grudge

it has simply to do with the fact that some winters it just doesn't snow and this seems like one of them to me

and to try to go 90+ miles away from DCA/BWI to prove your point is going overboard as their climo has nothing to do with ours and it is very common they do have a decent winter and we don't

look, time will tell; and not you nor anything other than a significant snow will convince me otherwise (and I really do wish I will be convinced)

enough, I'm going to bed!

g'nite

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I have never spoken of any area other than DCA/BWI and you saying I'm going overboard doesn't make it true

and it has nothing to do with an atmospheric grudge

it has simply to do with the fact that some winters it just doesn't snow and this seems like one of them to me

and to try to go 90+ miles away from DCA/BWI to prove your point is going overboard as their climo has nothing to do with ours and it is very common they do have a decent winter and we don't

look, time will tell; and not you nor anything other than a significant snow will convince me otherwise (and I really do wish I will be convinced)

enough, I'm going to bed!

g'nite

you had some legitimacy with your seasonal trend argument for a while but now you seem to be implying that the seasonal trend theory of yours only applies to DC and Baltimore. So are you saying that seasonal trends do not matter everywhere else. IF it has not been snowing in central PA it does not mean anything and they can easily get a snowstorm. If it has not been snowing say the upper midwest, that would make no difference and their luck could change. But for DC and Baltimore the seasonal trend is uber important and if its not snowed by January 20th that means pack it in? This makes no sense, if there is a seasonal trend issue and if so it would need to be applied universally not selectively. If you are selectively applying this theory only where you want that is not scientific and is simply your own personal bias at work.

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DC people need to realize that 60+ inches isn't climo.

Real funny to watch these threads though. Ya'll need a real hobby.

JonJon....keep raking it in, see you in 2 weeks!

Who's talking about exceeding climo? At this point we are talking about reaching halfway to our season average before February hits. Given how cold it's been this winter basically non-stop since Dec. 1 -- remember that wild front that moved through on Dec. 1 that ushered in winter? -- I think we've got to take our shots between now and early to mid February. After that, I would be shocked if an early spring doesn't set in for late February.

And, despite talk about March being potentially promising, I wouldn't bet on it. Besides, I can rarely get excited watching a March snow fall that you know very well will melt the next day.

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DC people need to realize that 60+ inches isn't climo.

Real funny to watch these threads though. Ya'll need a real hobby.

JonJon....keep raking it in, see you in 2 weeks!

Sustained cold isn't Climo either.

This is the worst of the worst...sustained cold with no snow. If we get no 4"+ snow the rest of the winter, this will probably be one of the worst winters i've faced. At least in most crappy winters, there is warm air to somewhat enjoy.

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Who's talking about exceeding climo? At this point we are talking about reaching halfway to our season average before February hits. Given how cold it's been this winter basically non-stop since Dec. 1 -- remember that wild front that moved through on Dec. 1 that ushered in winter? -- I think we've got to take our shots between now and early to mid February. After that, I would be shocked if an early spring doesn't set in for late February.

And, despite talk about March being potentially promising, I wouldn't bet on it. Besides, I can rarely get excited watching a March snow fall that you know very well will melt the next day.

after last winter, DC/Balt should not expect a 12+ snow for 3 years. Ya'll just had the winter of the CENTURY!

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from the philly thread on the euro ensembles

ORH_wxman, on 22 January 2011 - 03:00 AM, said:

Low is due east of SBY at 108h....850 line is offshore SE of LI.

Its a good track for DC/BWI...looks like it would go right over HSE and then about 50-75 miles due E of SBY

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also on the ensemble

"Definitely tamer than the 12z ensemble....by quite a bit. Also much faster. The 12z run at 132h had the low over ACY...hugging the coast. 00z never gets that far W and also has the low SE of ACK at 120h (same verification time as 12z 132h) "

"Its all snow for DC/BWI....only the southern Delmarva around SBY and down to SE VA (RIC and SEward) would have rain issues. "

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Wow its 5 degrees here right now. one thing I keep thinking is how badly the euro busted on surface temps during the ice event last week. It was off by about 9 degrees here. I just have a hard time seeing the surface moderate as fast as the foreign models are trying too.

This is the first time I have agreed with the Euro ensemble--and that small threat of a farther E track and all snow that I mentioned earlier has some good backing now.

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Yea.. nam is definitely going to send this either along the coast or even somewhat inland based off the 500 mb level. Definitely with the Euro/GGEm camp.

Thought the same thing when I saw the set up. But looking at the pressure fields I have to wonder about the bagginess that's off the southeast coast. Wouldn't that argue for a slightly more eastern track?

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