baroclinic_instability Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This psuhoffman storm thread caught my attention--if it has psu's stamp of approval it will be a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 This psuhoffman storm thread caught my attention--if it has psu's stamp of approval it will be a good one. There's an odd 12 hour period of flurries over DC from hour 156-162 in the 18Z GFS... Not reading any value into that at this point other than the model sensing moisture potential, which is good to see given the low temps. Something bubbling up in the gulf at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18Z GFS doesn't have the hoofman storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 There's an odd 12 hour period of flurries over DC from hour 156-162 in the 18Z GFS... Not reading any value into that at this point other than the model sensing moisture potential, which is good to see given the low temps. Something bubbling up in the gulf at the same time. ...And after taking a looooong time in the gulf, it picks up and goes OTS at about 232 if it showed... Needs to speed up if it's going to do anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 18, 2011 Author Share Posted January 18, 2011 18Z GFS doesn't have the hoofman storm. it does..it just takes forever to develop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 18, 2011 Share Posted January 18, 2011 18Z GFS doesn't have the hoofman storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 This psuhoffman storm thread caught my attention--if it has psu's stamp of approval it will be a good one. The storm will get worried away by this time tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 The storm will get worried away by this time tomorrow. I am having a cup of coffee with it, trying to relieve its fears right now. It says that it really does not like politics, but we are working on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JB just started pimping my storm, ugh that's a death blow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JB just started pimping my storm, ugh that's a death blow I wouldn't worry about it. Even a broken clock can be right twice a winter... Hype everything and you're sure to get one hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 JB just started pimping my storm, ugh that's a death blow I'm pretty sure the death blow was in naming a d8 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I've lost track. Is the PSUHOffman storm the same as the DT storm or did the DT storm already die? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I've lost track. Is the PSUHOffman storm the same as the DT storm or did the DT storm already die? the dt storm might impact the outer banks of nc according to the euro (sunday/sun night) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm pretty sure the death blow was in naming a d8 storm. that was not my doing, JI did that by himself. Only time I really started honking for a storm really really far out was the Feb 5th storm last year. I saw the signs for that around 10 days out. I loved the look of that setup, really nice STJ wave, trough axis a little far west but a crazy block for all that juice to ram into. That was about the only time from 10 days out I was really confident we were getting a big snow. I think this has potential and I like the setup more then anything so far this winter for a big snow here, but not nearly as much as I was for that storm last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 I'm pretty sure the death blow was in naming a d8 storm. a day8 storm for us actually starts on d5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 that was not my doing, JI did that by himself. Only time I really started honking for a storm really really far out was the Feb 5th storm last year. I saw the signs for that around 10 days out. I loved the look of that setup, really nice STJ wave, trough axis a little far west but a crazy block for all that juice to ram into. That was about the only time from 10 days out I was really confident we were getting a big snow. I think this has potential and I like the setup more then anything so far this winter for a big snow here, but not nearly as much as I was for that storm last year. the pattern has been terrible this yr so far so anything would be better though we arguably could have a much different outlook had dec 26 been a bit further west. signs that the coming period could be better are numerous, perhaps friday being the opening volley (or even last night for that matter even though ddweatherman nailed it). anecdotely we seem to be doing best precip wise while the nao is near neutral lately. we all know the flip can cause a storm as well, so seeing the forecasts bouncing around near the neutral territory might be positive even if we have to worry about rain-- though it is still the coldest time of yr for a bit longer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 the pattern has been terrible this yr so far so anything would be better though we arguably could have a much different outlook had dec 26 been a bit further west. signs that the coming period could be better are numerous, perhaps friday being the opening volley (or even last night for that matter even though ddweatherman nailed it). anecdotely we seem to be doing best precip wise while the nao is near neutral lately. we all know the flip can cause a storm as well, so seeing the forecasts bouncing around near the neutral territory might be positive even if we have to worry about rain-- though it is still the coldest time of yr for a bit longer. translation: Terrible pattern thats improving maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 translation: Terrible pattern thats improving maybe pretty much. we're so due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 pretty much. we're so due. are we really due after 90 inches last year and above normal snowfall for December? As weenies, we are due. As Washington DC, we are pretty much on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 are we really due after 90 inches last year and above normal snowfall for December? As weenies, we are due. As Washington DC, we are pretty much on track it depends if we're entering payback mode or if we're at the beginning of a snowy period of multiple seasons. i tend to think the latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 the pattern has been terrible this yr so far so anything would be better though we arguably could have a much different outlook had dec 26 been a bit further west. signs that the coming period could be better are numerous, perhaps friday being the opening volley (or even last night for that matter even though ddweatherman nailed it). anecdotely we seem to be doing best precip wise while the nao is near neutral lately. we all know the flip can cause a storm as well, so seeing the forecasts bouncing around near the neutral territory might be positive even if we have to worry about rain-- though it is still the coldest time of yr for a bit longer. I agree, I like our chances this winter with a +PNA/neutral NAO better then the -PNA/-NAO we had. Even if the NAO goes slightly positive for a time, with the solar minimum and being the coldest period of the year, I think we would do ok. It does introduce the chance for a changeover with storms, but at least we would get a good front end dump probably from each threat, and then we can deal with the battle with the rain/snow line. I will take my chances with those type storms then the late developing miller b crap storms we have had so far. Being further inland and west then the other cities up the coast actually gives our area an advantage in this pattern developing. Lets see if we can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 if we get +snow in jan that will be 6 mo in a row Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 it depends if we're entering payback mode or if we're at the beginning of a snowy period of multiple seasons. i tend to think the latter. we have been long overdue for the pattern flip that is happening now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 hey PSU... the JMA shows a monster storm. Its the first time all year the JMA and the EURO both show substantial snow for us in the same time range. Usually, when they agree, its a pretty good bet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 hey PSU... the JMA shows a monster storm. Its the first time all year the JMA and the EURO both show substantial snow for us in the same time range. Usually, when they agree, its a pretty good bet what were you doubting the Hoffman storm??? BTW the play by play for the euro on that storm was fail worthy... the precip is gone by the time the warm air comes its a nice 4-8" thump snow then dryslot. Temps warm after the precip is out. It changes to rain i n NYC and BOS due to their further east location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 what were you doubting the Hoffman storm??? BTW the play by play for the euro on that storm was fail worthy... the precip is gone by the time the warm air comes its a nice 4-8" thump snow then dryslot. Temps warm after the precip is out. It changes to rain i n NYC and BOS due to their further east location. i saw that...euro gives us like .01 after the warm up at 850. Its a snowstorm. JMA shows the potential for alot more and is much colder Ian...go find a good storm on the GFS...jump on it and I will name the next threat after you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 Ian...go find a good storm on the GFS...jump on it and I will name the next threat after you im going to wait till the late feb hecs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 im going to wait till the late feb hecs Not that it matters for your intent for the post, but the curiosity is that there's never been a late feb hecs. There are two periods in the peak snow months (Jan and Feb) that have been sparse in big storms for us: early Jan and late Feb. (1/96 was the clear exception) Why do you all think that is? It's not like the periods before (December) and after (March) those two periods haven't seen big storms. The 10"+ storms in December and March actually end up spread more throughout the months. But there's something about late January through mid February that clusters most of our biggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 19, 2011 Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/AVN_0z/avnloopnew.html This is going to be intersting. Warm air surges north. Will it change over to rain before the coastal takes over? Edit: Oh well the low cut off in the SW again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 19, 2011 Author Share Posted January 19, 2011 http://www.meteo.psu...avnloopnew.html This is going to be intersting. Warm air surges north. Will it change over to rain before the coastal takes over? Edit: Oh well the low cut off in the SW again no way that low is going to cut off like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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