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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Instead of asking IMBY questions, I try to uncover the info for myself and mostly lurk.

So, can anyone tell me whether it's meaningful and possible to determine when/if a particular location has really high omegas? Perhaps there's a website similar to soundings which show this? I last heard thundersnow in 1992 and don't want to miss it if at all possible

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Maybe but compared to the tv guys we're giddy.

Wes, the NAM and GFS obviously both show a real spanking of precip. for 6 hrs. at about

the 30 hr, mark, the SREF shows it too but with less intensity.

Do you need one more 6 hr. model run or two more model runs

until you feel really confident about that intense 6 hr.

period of precip. verifying?

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

548 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...

-- Changed Discussion --HEADS UP THAT WE ARE GOING TO UPGRADE THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A

WINTER STORM WARNING FOR ALL COUNTIES WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE WHERE

WE HAVE INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN 5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW IN A 12

HOUR PERIOD. NAM IS COLDER AND WOULD SUGGEST WARNING SNOW

CRITERIA EAST TO INTERSTATE 95 BUT IS A RELATIVE OUTLIER TO THE

18Z GFS AND 12Z ECWMF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST LESS SNOW EAST OF THE

BLUE RIDGE. THIS PRESENTS CONFIDENCE ISSUES EAST OF THE BLUE RIDGE

REGARDING SNOWFALL TOTALS SO WINTER STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN

EFFECT FOR NOW.

[
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

602 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

MDZ003-501-502-VAZ025>031-503-504-WVZ050>053-055-501>506-260715-

/O.UPG.KLWX.WS.A.0002.110126T1100Z-110127T0500Z/

/O.NEW.KLWX.WS.W.0003.110126T1200Z-110127T0500Z/

WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-

AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-

WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-

JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-

EASTERN MINERAL-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...

STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...

HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...

BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...

FORT ASHBY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN

602 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT

EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM

7 AM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE WINTER STORM

WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW. A LITTLE SLEET COULD MIX IN AT THE

ONSET.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN JUST AFTER SUNRISE WEDNESDAY ACROSS

THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND MID

MORNING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE NORTHERN SHENANDOAH VALLEY AND

EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA PANHANDLE. SNOW CONTINUES BEFORE ENDING

LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING. HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE FROM EARLY

AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...LOWER TO MID 30S WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO THE

MID 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST

AROUND 10 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

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We're gonna get snow - It had better be cold after - I have been freezing my tarkus off all winter, 8 straight weeks with perfectly brown grass.

Once we get snowpack - I want frigid weather with strong winds. I want to have plenty of time to kick back and savor jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk and to take at least 10000 snow pics with my trusty iPhone. I got PLENTY of HD space on my home computer - at least 880 gigs - and that puppy IS expandable - I got thousands of snow pics I want to store there as well as all those beautiful model runs off American Wx Forums - I WILL NEVER EVER BE EASTERNED AGAIN, now or in the future.

I WORSHIP snow and cold.

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Just a quick note to everyone here. It is now within "Nowcasting" time--and it is worth watching trends and how this storm develops wrt the model guidance. Personally I think the NAM 18Z being a tad NW of the GFS is probably more realistic given the intensity of the PV max and the fact these defo bands typically end up farther displaced from the low level circulation.

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We're gonna get snow - It had better be cold after - I have been freezing my tarkus off all winter, 8 straight weeks with perfectly brown grass.

Once we get snowpack - I want frigid weather with strong winds. I want to have plenty of time to kick back and savor jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk after jebwalk and to take at least 10000 snow pics with my trusty iPhone. I got PLENTY of HD space on my home computer - at least 880 gigs - and that puppy IS expandable - I got thousands of snow pics I want to store there as well as all those beautiful model runs off American Wx Forums - I WILL NEVER EVER BE EASTERNED AGAIN, now or in the future.

I WORSHIP snow and cold.

The question is, have you backed up all your snow pics? Maybe store them in that underground vault built into a mountain somewhere in upstate NY. Bill Gates keeps his art there.

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Just a quick note to everyone here. It is now within "Nowcasting" time--and it is worth watching trends and how this storm develops wrt the model guidance. Personally I think the NAM 18Z being a tad NW of the GFS is probably more realistic given the intensity of the PV max and the fact these defo bands typically end up farther displaced from the low level circulation.

Agreed and agreed. Someone start verifying the 6hr/12hr with the mesoscale page... I'm off to bed :D

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Cross-polar vodka cold, baby!!!!

Don S. may need an entire new essay for this one.

Once we have snowpack then we get the cross polar WE ARE MONEY - We'll make 160 million dollars in the Bellagio on the Vegas Strip look like chump change and Clooney and his crew look like disillusioned dreamers

We'll have more than our hearts could dream in a million Ice Age Winters! We'll have radiational cooling straight up the ass! There will be water main breaks all over Washington - with ample opportunity for Ice Jebwalks in the frosty sunshine. We'll fall below zero for lows and the surface albedo will be so high that we'll have a week straight of highs ONLY in the TEENS in DCA!!! Oh the fights for parking throughout the region!!!

I'll have WEEKS to savor many a leisurely snow jebwalk.

I LOVE THIS NINA SO MUCH!!!!!!!!

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The question is, have you backed up all your snow pics? Maybe store them in that underground vault built into a mountain somewhere in upstate NY. Bill Gates keeps his art there.

Everything is backed up. All we need now is the snow then an unrelenting cross polar flow. Man I LOVE this atypical La Nina

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What am I missing here . Why is LWX so hesistant to hoist any warning east of the Blue Ridge. All their zone forecasts indicate at least 5 inches will fall from this. But yet they remain hesitant and talk about the NAM being an outlier. I don't want to start this whole debate again, but it seems like lots of people are being extra cautious with this storm. Yet, when I read that thing from Hydro talking about possible extreme conditions for a few hours right around evening rush hour, I would think everyone would want to start letting the public know tomorrow maybe shouldn't be a full work day to avoid traffic chaos.

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