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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Okay, the RGEM is getting ri-goddamn-diculous now.

For those of you who are counting, the 38 mm max at, oh, Rising Sun MD or so, is almost exactly 1.5 inches of QPF, aka 18 [edit because I never learned how to count, apparently] 15 inches of snow if all frozen at 10:1 ratios (or of course 9 feet at bufkit ratios).

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Ian, are you serious? Never can tell. I'm looking at 1-3 tomorrow then 3-5 tomorrow night. I would think you should be the same.

Yours Truly,

:weenie:

yes but im talking about someone else's forecast not my own

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it's going to be really hard to get 1.5"+ qpf with an event moving this fast.. that's about what DCA got in snowmageddon .. of course there was more to the north but let's just keep these things in mind

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it's going to be really hard to get 1.5"+ qpf with an event moving this fast.. that's about what DCA got in snowmageddon .. of course there was more to the north but let's just keep these things in mind

and i cant see the snow being heavier than the Feb 5,2010 storm either which it would have to be to get that much qpf in that time frame

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and i cant see the snow being heavier than the Feb 5,2010 storm either which it would have to be to get that much qpf in that time frame

i think there were some nam panels in that event spitting out over 1" in 6 hours.

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Lets say the heavy snow last 8 hours.

.1875 inches per hour.

At a 10:1 ratio that is less than 2 inches an hour. I think that is possible.

You have to keep in mind though that it won't be a constant 2 inches an hour. Likely to be banding with short lulls between bands like we always see. It's tough to get it to thump continuously for hours without even a short break.

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You have to keep in mind though that it won't be a constant 2 inches an hour. Likely to be banding with short lulls between bands like we always see. It's tough to get it to thump continuously for hours without even a short break.

that is true... but throw in a thundersnow... and that could be a quick 4 inches.

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Anyone with a brain should know that TV weather casters are 6 time zones behind their own ass 99% of the time, and that the most recent information is IN THIS THREAD, thus making just about any other source, including the NWS, not worth reporting IN THIS THREAD. I wish the weenies would get that through their head, or create your own thread discussing why someone on TV sporting a History degree and a couple of physical geography courses is wrong.

Because clearly the members without meteorological degrees in this thread know more than those at the NWS. That's an extremely ignorant statement. Do you even know what goes into getting a meteorological degree? Your lack or respect for those that know more than you is despicable. Try going to school for meteorology like I did and I think you'd respect the profession a little more. I may not have become a meteorologist but at least I don't feel like the opinions of a group of people posting on one weather forum on the web matter more than those that work for the NWS. There is politics involved in public weather forecasting and that is why they are behind...they don't have the luxury that we do of saying "12''+" at this point.

I thought I'd try out american wx forums but I'm shocked at the self-promotion and arrogance of some of the members on here. Feel free to delete this post or even ban me. I'm out. This is one forum of many and I think the majority of people here need to get over themselves. To those that value good conversation and appreciate weather for what it is, thank you. To those that ignore any other opinion beyond their own or their inner circle of friends, I'm sorry.

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it's going to be really hard to get 1.5"+ qpf with an event moving this fast.. that's about what DCA got in snowmageddon .. of course there was more to the north but let's just keep these things in mind

True, but not unheard of. Feb 87 as an example of a 9 hr. storm easily dumping 1.5 qpf as wet snow.

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No argument there for sure. It should average out but I would tend to agree with Ian about most of us maxing out between 1 inch QPF and maybe 1.1ish...tough to get those 1.5 totals.

most big winter storms around here are less than 1.5" and many of them are around longer than this. i can pull out the dca numbers later if people want to peruse them. it seems there is plenty of reason to think we get near 1" in spots which would probably mean some convective bands push further than that.

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PROBABILISTIC HEAVY SNOW AND ICING DISCUSSION

NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD

430 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

VALID 00Z WED JAN 26 2011 - 00Z SAT JAN 29 2011

DAYS 1 AND 2...

...TN VLY/CNTRL APPALACHIANS TO CNTRL/NRN MID-ATLANTIC AND ERN NEW

ENGLAND...

THEN AROUND WED MIDDAY/WED AFTN... THE I95 CORRIDOR AROUND THE

DC/BWI WILL BEGIN TO GET INVOLVED ON THE ACTION. THE UPPER LOW

CENTER WILL SLIDE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA PRODUCING ENOUGH

COOLING ALOFT TO TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE BOUNDARY LAYER FOR RAIN

CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. THE INSTABILITY AND UVVS ASSOCIATED

WITH THE DEVELOPING DEFORMATION ZONE/COMMA-HEAD WILL BE OFF THE

CHARTS... POSSIBLY ALLOWING A CONVECTIVE ASPECT TO BECOME

INVOLVED. THIS SHOULD TRANSLATE IN INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS

THE DC/BWI AREA FROM LATE TMRW AFTN TO VERY EARLY THURS MORNING

BEFORE THE ENTIRE PHASING SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY UP THE COAST. THUS

FOR THURS... A QUICK SIDE-SWIPE OF MDT TO HVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED

UP I95 THROUGH PHL... NYC AND BOS. HPC WENT WITH 4 TO 12 INCH HVY

SNOW PROBS EACH DAY AND A GENERAL PREFERENCE TOWARD A

ECMWF/CANADIAN/UKMET BLEND OVER THE NAM/GFS ON MASS FIELDS... QPF

AND THERMAL PROFILES.

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