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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Not five-posted. To say that I am "unbelievably lazy" just because I can't go back through 37 pages of a thread to see if anyone answered my question is unfair. Not all people can live on this board 24/7. I am not going to engage in bashing people and I never have, so I will say no more. Also, I was actually online last night when Wes posted the above statement and I read it then. It does not answer my question though. Wes' statement is his opinion on this particular storm and though he may be correct, my question was more general. My recollection is that ULLs seem to track further north than modeled even a few hours prior to the event, and I wondered if anyone else thought this or had evidence backing it up.

Latest NAM run has you in the sweet spot. I think that has been the case the past 24 hours and is holding. GFS up next.

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Yes it is. The nam looks like it gives us convection. I'm writing a bullish blog. lol. Famous last words.

You must have liked the look of that 1.5"+ bullseye over your house on the NAM, Wes :thumbsup:

We got your back if you bust :)

LWX must be thinking precip stays more rain to the south...that's the only thing I can see that would keep the WSWs up well north/west of the I-95 corridor.

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Does nayone have the potential to show the grid scale versus convective precipitation? It looks to me like the convective scheme might be kicking it with the slight drying that is showing up above 700mb. I'd be interested if any mets in the NWS have such a produce. I know HPC does but doubt they are reading the forum.

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I saw some flurries in Locust Point this morning. Still kind of cold out there, BWI still at 32 at 10 AM, and a cloud deck overhead.

Long time lurker, first time caller (although I did post a few times over at easternwx, mostly bird observations. I use a bird model to predict the weather).

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