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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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actually, for BWI, its the coldest run so far

looks like everything that falls is snow

WED 1A 26-JAN -0.5 -0.1 1019 82 68 0.00 559 544

WED 7A 26-JAN -0.3 -2.4 1015 97 100 0.07 556 543

WED 1P 26-JAN 1.9 -0.6 1009 93 98 0.09 551 543

WED 7P 26-JAN 0.2 -3.9 1006 97 100 0.34 542 537

THU 1A 27-JAN -0.1 -5.1 1008 96 94 0.36 540 534

You sure?

I am just looking at soundings. It is a tad warmer aloft and has more of a sleet/rain mix hanging on a little longer farther E.

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Despite the weenie suicides that will inevitably take place, this run is a bit more realistic with .75 to 1" QPF. I'm cool with that.

when the euro and the RGEM are constantly giving us 1 to 1.25 qpf.... .75 is not cool. The NAM is having issues again. Even the SREFS are wetter. Do you really think NYC is going to get screwed like the NAM shows?

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the diff between the Euro and the NAM is like night and day for NE

I'm trying to figure out how the he!! this went from a NE bliz to a MA special

more proof that its real hard to get a storm that hits the entire eastern seaboard from VA to ME

i doubt it's right up there maybe not here either but their a little further out in range. the nam has very little run to run consistency at the surface lately... or at least it is prone to bouncing around.

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For DC-BWI I think this run is perfect because it places us solidly in the center of the heaviest axis of precip. Whether its 0.75 or 1.25, whatever this storm pans out to be I want to be in the center of it. I'll take this ANY day. Especially when earlier runs had us much closer to the cutoffs.

Let's just hope it is cold enough at the surface. NW suburbs are good for 6"+ but every degree will matter at such marginal temps, along I-95.

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It's a solid 1.00-1.25" for the entire DCA/Balt/Annapolis

which is probably a realistic best case scenario which is what the models are showing. this thing is moving too fast to drop a lot more than that and even 1" might be a stretch for all we know tho plenty of guidance meets that threshold.

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