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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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Sha-bam:

post-96-0-85881800-1295981836.png

copypasta from the blog (http://madusweather.com/?p=749):

The map calls for a somewhat more northerly solution than what is currently shown on the models, with some heavy influence from the GFS/ECMWF solutions. This season’s trend of fully developing the coastal low and SN/+SN zone slower than expected has led me to think that the greatest snowfall totals in the coastal area will be further north and east than the 12z NAM shows. This area will also likely have better snowfall ratios than areas to the south, which will help towards breaking into the 8-12″ totals.

Along the mountains, there is the potential for some good upslope along the eastern Apps in northern VA. The position may end up being off, but I’m fairly sure some part of the eastern slopes will get into the higher totals of 8-12″ as the onshore mid-level flow of moisture starts to push into the area and is aided by higher snowfall ratios.

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Eerily similar to what could happen tomorrow. Notice heavy snowfall rates can overcome extremely warm initial ground conditions in a hurry!

1987

The Veterans Day Snowstorm --

On the weekend preceding the storm, November 7th through the eighth, the region experienced beautiful 70 degree Fahrenheit weather. The snow began during the early morning of November 11th with a quick burst of snow that produced 1 to 2 inches across Washington. But snowfall quickly ended, leading many to believe the storm was over. For a few hours in the morning no snow fell and people headed off to work, school and shopping. A second low system quickly intensified. By noon, a very heavy, nearly stationary, band of snow had set up through the eastern half of the area. Localized within this band, snow fell at a whiteout rate of 3 to 4 inches per hour for several hours, accompanied by lightning and thunder. This was the earliest snowstorm ever to hit the Washington area. The 11.5 inches of snow that fell at National Airport easily broke an old November record of only 6.9 inches that fell on November 30, 1967. The next earliest date for a snowstorm of that magnitude occurred well into the month of December when 12 inches of snow fell on December 17, 1932. National Airport was in the heavy snow band that reached its maximum of 14 to 16 inches in western Prince George's County. Snowfall amounts were much less to the Northwest with Gaithersburg reporting only 3 to 4 inches of snow. Both Boston and Providence received 10 inches of snow early also setting new season records. On November 12th, a high temperature 48 degrees F allowed for a quick return to normal road conditions for the area.

(p. 92-93 Washington Weather Book 2002 by Ambrose, Henry, Weiss)

Veterans Day snowstorm-record 11.5 inches at DCA after a high of 72° on 9th---- A deepening low-pressure system brought heavy snow to the east central U.S. The Veteran's Day storm produced up to 17 inches of snow in the Washington D.C. area snarling traffic and closing schools and airports. Afternoon thunderstorms produced five inches of snow in three hours. Gale force winds lashed the Middle and Northern Atlantic Coast. Norfolk VA reported their earliest measurable snow in 99 years of records.

(Ref. Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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It does say "experimental" so I guess that's the disclaimer lol

There's no guessing that it is experimental and that such a disclaimer is appropriate. Kudos to them for turning it towards the public to increase the feedback potential and to reveal the user presentation part of the operational readiness testing so early in the game.

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