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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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They have extended the watch further south and east based on the 12z guidance. Even st marys county is .That 850 0line is still extremly close for comfort on the models for many of us still.

Weenies rejoice. Then please take it to the obs thread.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC

109 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

DCZ001-MDZ010-011-013-014-016>018-VAZ036>039-050>057-502-260215-

/O.EXB.KLWX.WS.A.0002.110126T1900Z-110127T0900Z/

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-HOWARD-SOUTHERN BALTIMORE-PRINCE GEORGES-

ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NELSON-ALBEMARLE-GREENE-

MADISON-ORANGE-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-

FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-STAFFORD-SPOTSYLVANIA-

KING GEORGE-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...COLUMBIA...BALTIMORE...

ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...ST MARYS CITY...CHARLOTTESVILLE...

CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...

FALLS CHURCH...FREDERICKSBURG

109 PM EST TUE JAN 25 2011

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS

ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY

AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...BECOMING ALL SNOW DURING LATE AFTERNOON AND

EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...5 OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW STARTING DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY

EVENING. ENDING AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST

WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TO UPPER 30S WEDNESDAY...DROPPING TO THE

LOWER 30S BY THE EVENING. THE UPPER 20S WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

* WINDS...NORTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WEDNESDAY...BECOMING NORTHWEST

AROUND 15 MPH WEDNESDAY EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT

SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&

$

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850 line at 27 is just west of DCA... so maybe cut off .1 QPF... but damn 12 hr QPF from the HIRES ARW

The Hires WRFs are really, really close to all snow for DC and Baltimore. Probably is all snow for Baltimore with some snizzle/rasn for DC at the start.

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I have seen this so many times before...watch the heaviest precipitation and snow end up being along and just SE of I 95 along the rain snow line. In these borderline events it always seems to happen this way. Maybe I am wrong, but this seems like one of these cases. That doesn't mean DC north and west won't see any snow though!

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They won't go past 39 hrs and show me more snowgoodiness... :(

But yes.. I think its a bit overdone.. but they both show a powerful closed h5 low moving through SE VA at 39

in this case they may have the idea right. with the speckles of really high qpf tho prob not 1.5"+. tough to say.

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I have seen this so many times before...watch the heaviest precipitation and snow end up being along and just SE of I 95 along the rain snow line. In these borderline events it always seems to happen this way. Maybe I am wrong, but this seems like one of these cases. That doesn't mean DC north and west won't see any snow though!

My memory tells me that the higher elevs of Moco, Fred, Loudon, etc seem to usually cash in on the QPF bullseye. Maybe I'm just thinking snowfall and not total precip. It's easy to ignore rain totals during the winter.

My 420' of elevation ought to squeeeeze out a little extra juice. lol

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My memory tells me that the higher elevs of Moco, Fred, Loudon, etc seem to usually cash in on the QPF bullseye. Maybe I'm just thinking snowfall and not total precip. It's easy to ignore rain totals during the winter.

My 420' of elevation ought to squeeeeze out a little extra juice. lol

Yes, they tend to be the favored climo areas. I am talking also on the rain snow line there can also be secondary maxes and someone along and east of I 95 might see just as much if temperatures can cool enough. Just a few thoughts that I have been thinking. Again, doesn't mean they are right haha.

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Anyone remember this fool? (the bolded name)

AndyNJWx: just to warn you all, from NE VA, into C NJ and possibly northern Jersey, 18-25", with blizzard conditions, is on the way. Thats essentially right along i-95 corridor and to its south and east side. This is the biggest one yet this winter!

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