usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 The Euro has been wet consistently It has been. The 500h has always suggested at least .80 based on old forecast rules from years ago so the nam isn't so far fetched. It and the euro do raise the possibility that there could be quite a bit of tree and wire problems whent he heaviest snow fall since the tmeps are going to be so close to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thesnowsknows Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh, you wanted to know why it would come north, not what happens when it does.... sorry you didn't ask it that way. From my experience and I am no met, these things tend to trend north as it gets closer. But yes, perhaps someone else, say Ian or Wes can explain why that happens. Yeah sorry I guess I worded it funny. Very interesting. Can't say I'm not hoping for that trend. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It has been. The 500h has always suggested at least .80 based on old forecast rules from years ago so the nam isn't so far fetched. It and the euro do raise the possibility that there could be quite a bit of tree and wire problems whent he heaviest snow fall since the tmeps are going to be so close to freezing. Oh? You wouldn't happen to have a link or a study to that would you Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It has been. The 500h has always suggested at least .80 based on old forecast rules from years ago so the nam isn't so far fetched. It and the euro do raise the possibility that there could be quite a bit of tree and wire problems whent he heaviest snow fall since the tmeps are going to be so close to freezing. it's worth noting the bias but not being overly focused on imo. i think it's current solution makes some sense at least and the gfs might miss some of the detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 there's usually a drift.. im not exactly sure why. without the uber block in an optimal position and given the more progressive nature it seems it would want to try to lift north a tad. this has been fairly locked in so it might not be much or at all. i was nervous it was a little too good last night so im personally happy to see it back south a bit for now. Well for you and I, a small drift north would be helpful in terms of accumulations. But even if it doesn't and we get something like what the NAM is giving us... I'll be very happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 We have all you DC area mets to thank for being out of town and giving us extra mojo Bah. Can't believe I'm following a storm so closely that I'm 2500 miles away from. Good luck everybody! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WoodbineWX Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 With that said, I am all in now. MDstorm im just east of mt airy basically on the line of woodbine and mt airy, where in western howard are you?...ide like to be able to compare obs during the storm. Liking our spot better and better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well for you and I, a small drift north would be helpful in terms of accumulations. But even if it doesn't and we get something like what the NAM is giving us... I'll be very happy. 100% agree. Given the torture that this winter has been and how things looked 2 days ago, anything close to this run of the NAM would be great. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 something to watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Assuming some meltage at first and lower ratios I would think the NAM is saying at least 7-8" for DCA...qpf is 1.17 but I have to believe some of that melts on contact so even at 10-1 that would be 11" so if ratios are a tad lower and we melt some I think that number looks ok...for now. Same deal for JYO only maybe a tad less melting and perhaps a higher ratio maybe gives us 4-6" per NAM..... Good storm if it happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just fistpumped. Seriously. I'm slightly embarrassed to admit it, but I'm man enough to fess up. Note the omegas. They suggest thundersnows IMO "Yoda loves him some omegas." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Assuming some meltage at first and lower ratios I would think the NAM is saying at least 7-8" for DCA...qpf is 1.17 but I have to believe some of that melts on contact so even at 10-1 that would be 11" so if ratios are a tad lower and we melt some I think that number looks ok...for now. Same deal for JYO only maybe a tad less melting and perhaps a higher ratio maybe gives us 4-6" per NAM..... Good storm if it happens Luckily it looks like some of the heavier stuff will be falling at/just after sunset. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just fistpumped. Seriously. I'm slightly embarrassed to admit it, but I'm man enough to fess up. "Yoda loves him some omegas." But seriously... hrs 32-36 would be rockin per the h7 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenuno Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Ashburn looks like a good spot for this storm Yes, yes it does. Sweet Loudoun County, although with our temps in the mid single digits yesterday, Im really interested as to how the dynamics involved get our ground temps to warm to the point where we struggle to accumulate. I mean 6 degrees is awfully cold, even here. We see that number once or twice a season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Assuming some meltage at first and lower ratios I would think the NAM is saying at least 7-8" for DCA...qpf is 1.17 but I have to believe some of that melts on contact so even at 10-1 that would be 11" so if ratios are a tad lower and we melt some I think that number looks ok...for now. Same deal for JYO only maybe a tad less melting and perhaps a higher ratio maybe gives us 4-6" per NAM..... Good storm if it happens no 4-6 for Leesburg would be an unacceptable disaster. I am going 6-10 leaning on the higher side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 im just east of mt airy basically on the line of woodbine and mt airy, where in western howard are you?...ide like to be able to compare obs during the storm. Liking our spot better and better I'm very close to you------I'm also in Woodbine(near Glenwood). If things go as progged, we look to be in good shape. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Exciting stuff. For any of you in Seattle, the first of two daily weather briefings is this morning at 7:30 LT. Room 607. Perhaps the east coast storm can be discussed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Oh? You wouldn't happen to have a link or a study to that would you Wes? NO, just an old rule of thumb from an old forecaster years ago about miller a systems with a closed low. They almost always bring at least 0.80 liquid if you're in the sweet spot and with this storm we are at least according to the model 500h tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Don Cherry's Jacket Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Touching on what Phin said yesterday, I again heard this morning the forecast of sleet to rain to snow to one to inches only on grass. Sure, that could happen, but is there current support for that forecast? I'm not seeing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I just fistpumped. Seriously. I'm slightly embarrassed to admit it, but I'm man enough to fess up. "Yoda loves him some omegas." Jersey forum is thataway -> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no 4-6 for Leesburg would be an unacceptable disaster. I am going 6-10 leaning on the higher side Good luck...NAM says you are fringed at least for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 RGEM is taking a LONG... time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 no 4-6 for Leesburg would be an unacceptable disaster. I am going 6-10 leaning on the higher side You are setting yourself up for failure, like usual. I would be happy with 4-6" and I live 3 miles south of Dulles Airport Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 12z RGEM at 24 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/592_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Smoke me captain.. 36 hr RGEM.. and yes thats a few small pockets of 25mm in C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dynasty Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 .SHORT TERM /7 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... ***WATCH EXPANSION INTO NE MD...N DEL AND MUCH OF NJ EXCEPT FAR SOUTH PROBABLE AT 1115 AM PENDING NEW GFS*** PLEASE GIVE US TIME ON THIS. WE ALL SAW THE NEW 12Z NAM WITH HUGE SNOWGROWTH AND QPF AMTS UNDER THE DEFORMATION ZONE NW OF THE NAMS MORE DEFINED 500MB STRUCTURE. COULD BE THUNDER SNOW WED EVE. COLLAB WITH HPC AT 8AM REGARDING MY UNCERTAINTY FURTHER NW IN NE PA AND NW NJ BUT AWAITING ALL THE MODELS BEFORE ANY POSSIBLE TRIM THERE. FOCUS "MAY" BE SHIFTING SEWD 30 MILES. MORE AT 1115 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yoda how much does that show? I can't read those maps with my young eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 48 hrs snow please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Yoda how much does that show? I can't read those maps with my young eyes. Alot At least .5 QPF Likely 20mm is snow... and thats 0.8 QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That 36hr RGEM chart is very easy on the eyes 48hr too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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