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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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If you've read the thread, you'd see nobody has a good idea of what will happen anywhere yet. It could be heavy precip or just moderate; it could rain or could snow.... Way too early for those kinds of questions, weather channel is what you should look at lol

Please do not point the poster towards the weather channel. That's just silly.

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I understand no WSW...but not even a Hazardous weather outlook? The NWS is clowning hard right now...

I would imagine they are holding off for one more run of consistency after 6z scaled precip back. If 12z is a hit, expect watches/warnings to be posted.

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It's been well below freezing for what, the last 96 hours or more? Does the ground warm up that fast?

Depends on insolation, RH during the warmup, the amount of liquid precip that interacts with the frozen ground and, of course, the duration of each. The same high RH or insolation that can quickly destroy a snow field acts on frozen ground nearly the same.

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this is actually good news because all winter long in the last 24 hours, there have been north trends and will probably be another north trend at 00z based on what we have seen this year.

depends Ji, its not really a trend south its that the last few runs before 6z were really winding the low up better and more consolidated with the upper features right at our lattitude so the CCB blew up right over us and really just thumped for 6 hours before swinging northeast. Now the 6z and latest SREF backed off on that idea and again keep the surface low seperate and slide it out, then slide the upper low through a few hours later. So we are back to what we had before last nights runs, just the upper energy sliding east behind the surface storm. Not a bad solution for you but now the 10" idea that was on the table with the 0z runs. Furthermore, that solutions is pretty bad for my area, because the H5 is going to track a little too far south for me to get really heavy precip from that alone, if the slp doesnt get going in time to get the ccb in here I am probably getting fringed up here. However, it is just one run and could easily shift back at 12 or 0z.

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Depends on insolation, RH during the warmup, the amount of liquid precip that interacts with the frozen ground and, of course, the duration of each. The same high RH or insolation that can quickly destroy a snow field acts on frozen ground nearly the same.

Yeah, fog will just tear up a snow field like nothing else.

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I would imagine they are holding off for one more run of consistency after 6z scaled precip back. If 12z is a hit, expect watches/warnings to be posted.

Understandable, but I've seen Hazardous outlooks posted for marginally high winds... The prospect of up to 4 inches of snow or more should at least warrant a HWO. But oh well, like posted earlier, doesn't really matter what NWS does. Just thought their inconsistency was a little interesting.

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All: Per the NWS

Winter Storm Watch This product is issued by the National Weather Service when there is a potential for heavy snow or significant ice accumulations, usually at least 24 to 36 hours in advance. The criteria for this watch can vary from place to place.

Should WSW go up, they will be issued later today. Please be patient!!!!

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Understandable, but I've seen Hazardous outlooks posted for marginally high winds... The prospect of up to 4 inches of snow or more should at least warrant a HWO. But oh well, like posted earlier, doesn't really matter what NWS does. Just thought their inconsistency was a little interesting.

After posting the WSW for the december storm for 6-10 inches and then getting burned with a trace for most of the area, I can see why they are cautious.

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Weather Channel has all rain for me in DC...

Weather channel is generally 12-18 hours behind any forecast updates... I remember as a kid some massive storms coming but in the last 36 hours trended away from us or turned too warm... so I would turn to the Weather Channel to see an outdated forecast and give me hope. weight_lift.gif

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