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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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That's because the euro verifies best and the track of the 500h looks so good on all the models. it was issued prior to the 06Z guidance.

Indeed they were issued before 06z - in fact Fozz posted the exact maps at 230 this morning, two pages ago.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10601-psuhoffman-storm-the-pre-reckoning/page__st__680

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You guys are going way to high with accumaltions.. Remember the ground and roads are going to be warm and wet from the rain. It will take awhile to start accumulate also with temps marginal....

Absolutely. Especially since the temps have yet to climb higher than 20's since early Saturday. The ground will be nice and toasty for the storm.

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That's because the euro verifies best and the track of the 500h looks so good on all the models. it was issued prior to the 06Z guidance.

Euro has had us in the 1.4-1.7 qpf the past 6 or so runs. No reason to think it will be wrong. 6z Gfs on Christmas day gave us 8--15 only to give us 1-2 inches at 12z

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That's because the euro verifies best and the track of the 500h looks so good on all the models. it was issued prior to the 06Z guidance.

I'm liking your take on the big picture, Wes. There's every reason to believe that he ULL is going to thump this area pretty good. Details will only come to light nearly as the event unfolds.

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Euro has had us in the 1.4-1.7 qpf the past 6 or so runs. No reason to think it will be wrong. 6z Gfs on Christmas day gave us 8--15 only to give us 1-2 inches at 12z

careful (I know I'm wasting my time here JI!)

HPC went gung-ho on the 1st storm after Christmas and they busted (recall even Wes didn't agree with them-in so many words)

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careful (I know I'm wasting my time here JI!)

HPC went gung-ho on the 1st storm after Christmas and they busted (recall even Wes didn't agree with them-in so many words)

Look. The only time I buy an off run(6z or 18z) is when it gives me more snow. Otherwise I punt them

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Sometimes I think that people here think that LWX actually determines whether a storm will occur based on whether they issue a watch. It's as if LWX is controlling what will happen. Guess what? The quality posters and commenters on this Board have just as good a probability of being correct as LWX.

This Board already issued a Watch if you just read the trends of the comments. That's better news to be than whatever LWX decides to issue. Just my $.02.

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Check out the individual SREF members from earlier this morning. Lots of spread on QPF. The best run (ARW2) gives 1.75-2 in to DC area SE and 1.5-1.75 to the rest of the B/W metros, while the worst (ETA3) gives .1-.25 to the northern parts of MD's northernmost counties and .25-.5 most everywhere else in the B/W metro areas. Despite the near-unified consensus on 0z, this morning's runs should show folks that there are still some track and QPF uncertainties.

f60.gif

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That's still an impressive mean on the sref.

No doubt (albeit a bit lower than the 0z suite). I just wanted to show the spread, too. There's been a some discussion about the importance of not overlooking it, and the 0z suite to my relative newbie eyes looked quite unified in its guidance, while at least the individual members of the SREF show some variance. Haven't peeked at the GFS Ensembles from last night yet.

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Sometimes I think that people here think that LWX actually determines whether a storm will occur based on whether they issue a watch. It's as if LWX is controlling what will happen. Guess what? The quality posters and commenters on this Board have just as good a probability of being correct as LWX.

This Board already issued a Watch if you just read the trends of the comments. That's better news to be than whatever LWX decides to issue. Just my $.02.

Yes, but most people are not on this board. Don't they have a right to know something other than a rain storm may be coming? But your right, it really doesn't matter at this stage what LWX does. But I have not been overly impressed with some of their decisions this year. Last year, they were great and always a step ahead, IMO. This year, they have issued several watches that seemed way premature and based on overly optomistic snowfall estimates -- none of which verified.

And when there was a serious situation -- the ice storm two weeks ago - they didn't issue a warning until almost 11 p.m. four hours after it began and after most people went to bed. But I accept your overall point, and will give up my mini-crusade for a watch.

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I do not know how data is assimilated on the SREF for initialization, so should we view the SREF as follow-up support for the previous runs, or preview of the next?

dude..can you believe we have been talking about the psuhoffman storm since Jan 17. 8 days and counting. Only a fool would think models are bad. The fact that this storm has been on the radar this long is a testament to models

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Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts

The last couple of days seem to have had a string of first-posters trickle in and ask IMBY questions...

Don't know why the Storm Mode link is still not working despite people bringing it up yesterday. :(

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SREF just came out, they trended south from 3z but not nearly as much as 6z NAM/GFS did. .5 gets back to about HGR to York, they look great for the nw suburbs of DC and Baltimore...not so much up my way.

this is actually good news because all winter long in the last 24 hours, there have been north trends and will probably be another north trend at 00z based on what we have seen this year.

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Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts

Hi! Welcome to the board.

Your local NWS office should have a discussion that will give you some better insight on what to expect for your area. Also, please continue reading through the threads... I'm sure there is plenty of information to answer your question. I personally do not know your area well, so I cannot answer your question directly... but hopefully I have pointed you in the right direction.

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I wish sometime people would do their own analysis than taking everything LWX says at face-value. HOw about reading HPC map of 70 percent chance of more than 4 inches, or every model in 00z suite that showed the area approaching double digit accumulations -- after the rain. I am not saying that is going to verify, but don't sit here and act like you are the only one who reads.

You were the one complaining about LWX having not issued a WSW. Mapgirl was simply pointing out that LWX explains why in their very own discussion.

I would expect that they will start to issue watches for **SOME** parts of the area later this afternoon. You just need to chill.

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Hey im new to this sight but have been watching the discussion the last couple days.... i live in the central part of delaware wondering if any one had an idea what was going to happen in those parts

If you've read the thread, you'd see nobody has a good idea of what will happen anywhere yet. It could be heavy precip or just moderate; it could rain or could snow.... Way too early for those kinds of questions, weather channel is what you should look at lol

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