MD Snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based in the 06Z run, 2" to 4" N and W of Baltimore and Washington seems easy and reasonable. Higher amounts are certainly possible but not probable. In DC itself, 1" to 2" is probable. Precip is coming in two waves; only the second wave will give snow that precipitates. The first wave as depicted by the 6z nam and gfs give the balt washington area like a couple hundredths of an inch of precip. The real storm will be the ULL. Also I posted last night about Upton's forecast in NY yesterday saying that NWS was doing fly overs in the gulf to gain more information about this storm. They said it would be available for the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 K have fun. Literally posted less than a page ago. Please read through the recent posts. Sorry, tired as hell. Deleted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
birdsofprey02 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sorry, tired as hell. Deleted Can we describe the map a bit? Facebook is blocked at my office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Sorry, tired as hell. Deleted Thanks. FWIW, I think that map is too bullish to the north... not a lot of precip to work with to get the higher totals that far north. EDIT: Also, on the south end, going from pink (I assume mixed) to a magic 4" that's a lot further south than what all of the discussion is pointing to? That's dangerous territory right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 No doubt that poster is irritating and predictable. Just noting that the 0z suite won't mean anything after today's runs. 6z nam and gfs could certainly reverse at 12z or later, but these are all simulated outcomes until the actual weather hits. Disagree. Previous runs can be used for trend purposes. Using many runs to gauge consistency is crucial given how this season has played out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's the sref total qpf for the storm thru 54 hrs when everything has wrapped up. http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/sref/03/images/sref_x24_054s.gif It only gives between .5-1.00 like the 6z nam. One thing that's great about this possible dump is I don't think this ULL can really go any further north and really can't go that far south. The only possible letdown may be a weaker ULL but that has yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest NWS NCEP HPC snow probability map is up: *map* Looks like an ECMWF-centric solution (with colder temps via the GFS?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Disagree. Previous runs can be used for trend purposes. Using many runs to gauge consistency is crucial given how this season has played out. Thoughts on the consistency over the last four runs of the nam and gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Latest NWS NCEP HPC snow probability map is up: Just for giggles: EDIT: FARTHER NORTH FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN WITH RAIN MIXING IN AT TIMES...ENDING AS A WET...HEAVY SNOW. AS ENERGY TRANSFERS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT TO A LOW ALONG A COASTAL FRONT...RAPID DEEPENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH THE LOW TRACKING NORTH...JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...AN AXIS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW IS FORECAST FROM EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA TO MASSACHUSETTS WITH ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS MIXED WITH SOME ICE ACCUMULATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's the QPF map from HPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Come on now, of course it is to help the public. 99.99% of the world doesn't obsess over modeling and the changeability of forecasts like the zealots on this board do. So they need to tread carefully when issuing watches and warnings, and they are here. Given the complicated nature of this storm and how easy we could miss in any of a variety of ways, waiting until mid-afternoon today to make the next move is certainly defensible and, frankly, prudent. I wasn't referring to this storm, just in general. And it was a completely serious question. When Joe Public watches the nightly news, and there's a storm coming guaranteed for 6" of snow, how does he act differently if there's a WSW vs. WWA vs. nothing? If he walks outside, it's snowing hard and there's 6" on the ground, does he say to himself "well, there's no WSW, I guess it's safe to go out"? Obviously tornado and severe thunderstorm warnings have an immediate benefit to the public. But do WSWs give that same benefit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks. FWIW, I think that map is too bullish to the north... not a lot of precip to work with to get the higher totals that far north. EDIT: Also, on the south end, going from pink (I assume mixed) to a magic 4" that's a lot further south than what all of the discussion is pointing to? That's dangerous territory right there. what do you consider a lot of precip? 0z euro gets the 1" line about to HGR to MDT and out there temps are colder on the MOS so thats probably 10" about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 First time in a long while I have been in the center of the 70% plus zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 what do you consider a lot of precip? 0z euro gets the 1" line about to HGR to MDT and out there temps are colder on the MOS so thats probably 10" about. It's mostly a difference in opinion... I think the ECMWF is too far inland with the higher totals (due to strengthening the low along the coast too early, which has been a recent trend with the coastal storms). I'm leaning closer to the GFS myself, with a slightly slower/more northern track as it evolves just off the coast... still not enough to track the higher QPF into central PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 O.k., I can see LWX shying away from a watch in the I-95 corridor or cities if they are worried about wet ground and inciting panic, but there is no excuse for them not hoisting one ANYWHERE in their area. U telling me even the colder northern valley places are going to be too warm for accumulating snow? HPC says those area stand a very, very high chance of at least 4 inches. I think LWX is just slow to the game cause they are stuck after their overly conservative mostly rain.mix forecast yesterday and still not acknowledging latest trends. And Watch doesn't mean they have to go to a warning -- it just tells people, "hey this storm may be more of a snow producer than we first thought so stay tuned." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldenuno Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Seem like a lot of similarities to the Feb 2006 storm that ended up dumping about a foot in Chantilly and points NW...WAA issues and a general doubt that it could really snow that much after it was that warm the day before. Mid 40s I believe the day before the event. Started as light rain, went to S/R then after dark - boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Just like I'd like to see the 12Z guidance come back a little more to the north with the ULL track, I'm sure thats what the NWS is waiting to see as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 It's mostly a difference in opinion... I think the ECMWF is too far inland with the higher totals (due to strengthening the low along the coast too early, which has been a recent trend with the coastal storms). but wasnt just about all other 0z guidance in line with it? 0z NAM and GFS both bot 1" up to the PA border, so did the UK and SREF seem to have the axis of heaviest precip in the same spot. I guess you are buying the 6z jump south by the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 O.k., I can see LWX shying away from a watch in the I-95 corridor or cities if they are worried about wet ground and inciting panic, but there is no excuse for them not hoisting one ANYWHERE in their area. U telling me even the colder northern valley places are going to be too warm for accumulating snow? HPC says those area stand a very, very high chance of at least 4 inches. I think LWX is just slow to the game cause they are stuck after their overly conservative mostly rain.mix forecast yesterday and still not acknowledging latest trends. And Watch doesn't mean they have to go to a warning -- it just people, "hey this storm may be more of a snow producer than we first thought so stay tuned." You are REALLY concerned with the WSW's. We're still about 36-40 hours away from the snow. Take a breather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 but wasnt just about all other 0z guidance in line with it? 0z NAM and GFS both bot 1" up to the PA border, so did the UK and SREF seem to have the axis of heaviest precip in the same spot. I guess you are buying the 6z jump south by the models? Read it again... it has nothing to do with what the models changed from run-to-run. It has to do with getting the coastal low developed. You know, Big Picture stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You are REALLY concerned with the WSW's. We're still about 36-40 hours away from the snow. Take a breather. Not to mention LWX said in their discussion this morning that they were holding off on WSW for now due to the fact that tomorrow there will be rain and it will cut down on accumulations. I wish people would read those things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Read it again... it has nothing to do with what the models changed from run-to-run. It has to do with getting the coastal low developed. You know, Big Picture stuff. 6-10 Leesburg. Too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not to mention LWX said in their discussion this morning that they were holding off on WSW for now due to the fact that tomorrow there will be rain and it will cut down on accumulations. I wish people would read those things. I wish sometime people would do their own analysis than taking everything LWX says at face-value. HOw about reading HPC map of 70 percent chance of more than 4 inches, or every model in 00z suite that showed the area approaching double digit accumulations -- after the rain. I am not saying that is going to verify, but don't sit here and act like you are the only one who reads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys are going way to high with accumaltions.. Remember the ground and roads are going to be warm and wet from the rain. It will take awhile to start accumulate also with temps marginal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Here's the QPF map from HPC That looks all Euro. Sounds like HPC tossed the 6z solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 While there is a break, I'll post something that I've posted before. It would be fun to hear the thoughts of a met on what they would predict for the storm at this point using only data, satellite, radar, and anything else available except computer models. That thought process is something we never hear about, and I would love to hear those thoughts. I'm sure the knowledge and ideas that they could toss out to us would be very interesting to read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I wish sometime people would do their own analysis than taking everything LWX says at face-value. HOw about reading HPC map of 70 percent chance of more than 4 inches, or every model in 00z suite that showed the area approaching double digit accumulations -- after the rain. I am not saying that is going to verify, but don't sit here and act like you are the only one who reads. I saw those maps too... like you. Sadly HPC does not issue our watches, LWX does. And if they have said in their discussion they are holding off for now, then that is what they are doing. Not much use in complaining about it since none of us here can really do a damn thing about it. Being patience helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 That looks all Euro. Sounds like HPC tossed the 6z solutions. Those maps were made before the 6z runs, if I can read the time stamp properly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys are going way to high with accumaltions.. Remember the ground and roads are going to be warm and wet from the rain. It will take awhile to start accumulate also with temps marginal.... It's been well below freezing for what, the last 96 hours or more? Does the ground warm up that fast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 You guys are going way to high with accumaltions.. Remember the ground and roads are going to be warm and wet from the rain. It will take awhile to start accumulate also with temps marginal.... A few of the runs last night showed very little rain for areas just west of DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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