weathercoins Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Not worried about 6z NAM. Sort of disappointed by LWX's forecast that was based on "striking consistency in the models"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
W4CGT Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Well... somebody's wrong. It will be interesting to see who. I'm crossing my fingers LWX is missing the boat on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Pretty much all guidance is aligned now, SREFS, RGEM, GFS, EC, UKMET, 0z NAM, NOGAPS... versus 6z NAM oh and the new 3z SREFS look the same as the 21z and do not hint as something like the NAM. Its a fluke run. I would be worried about the 6Z NAM since it is the first 6Z run of all the models to come out and has the latest info. It also led the way at 18Z yesterday in depicting the stronger ULL with colder temps and better track for DC. The other models followed suit, more or less. The GFS looks like it shifted a lil for the worse too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I would be worried about the 6Z NAM since it is the first 6Z run of all the models to come out and has the latest info. It also led the way at 18Z yesterday in depicting the stronger ULL with colder temps and better track for DC. The other models followed suit, more or less. The GFS looks like it shifted a lil for the worse too. 06z GFS keeps the snow chugging along like it has been, albeit slightly less in our area and slightly further S in SNE. Snow track has been very slowly taken on a more easterly component (vs NE), but snow for most of our area has been pretty consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is the money shot from the LWX discussion: IN TERMS OF ANY POSSIBLE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FOR THEREGION...TEMPS ON WED AFTN /JUST BEFORE AND DURING THE FIRST PORTION OF THIS SECOND WAVE/ WILL BE RISING A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL AREAS ESPECIALLY ARE EXPECTED TO SEE TEMPS CLIMBING INTO THE M-U30S FOR A FEW HRS...MAKING RAINFALL A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS AND LIMITING THE POTENTIAL TOTAL SNOWFALL. THEN ANOTHER GRADUAL CHANGEOVER TO MOSTLY OR ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE INTO THE EVE-LATE NIGHT HRS WED FROM WEST TO EAST. ACCUMULATING SNOWS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY ALONG THE BACKEDGE OF THE PRECIP SHIELD ASSOCIATED W/ THE UPPER LOW. HOLDING OFF ON A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE AREA BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTATION FOR RAIN AND WET SURFACES TO CUT DOWN ON SNOW ACCUMULATION OVER THE COURSE OF THE EVENT /MAINLY ON WED/. That is certainly a conservative read on the modeling we saw last night from the NAM through the Euro, but, there is frankly no rush to put up a watch this AM. They can wait and see what the 12Z guidance says and hoist one this afternoon if the models do what they did last night and still have plenty of time to put people on notice. And, after last night, I am sure we will all be keenly interested to see that suite hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowden Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Both 6z GFS and NAM trending drier, down to .5" on the GFS. To be expected I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is the money shot from the LWX discussion: That is certainly a conservative read on the modeling we saw last night from the NAM through the Euro, but, there is frankly no rush to put up a watch this AM. They can wait and see what the 12Z guidance says and hoist one this afternoon if the models do what they did last night and still have plenty of time to put people on notice. And, after last night, I am sure we will all be keenly interested to see that suite hold. This. Tomorrow afternoon would be the dicey part travel wise so they have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do they ever do studies on the gained benefit of a WSW vs. WWA vs. nothing? Is the public helped at all or does it just cause bread and milk panic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One heck of slug of moisture down in the gulf and heading northeast. Also see moisture developing NC/SC boarder around Myrtle Beach/Wilmington. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One other thing on the LWX discussion, they led with this: .NEAR TERM /TODAY/...-- Changed Discussion --THX TO ALL OFFICES FOR MUCH COORDINATION TNGT. Which means they certainly raised their eyebrows collectively over that run but as a group around the region clearly voted to wait and see if it holds this morning and to see if they could get better guidance on where the rain/snow line will set up and what to put in the watches (if any). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Forecasts are al over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I totally agree with LWX holding off hoisting any watches. Way too many variables still. Can't cry wolf too many more times and be expected to be listened to. This is almost a double thread-the-needle situation. Would be prudent to wait. Also, general question: Don't ULLs typically track a little further north than modeled even a few hours out? I seem to recall this in past storms, but I would defer to someone who actually knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Do they ever do studies on the gained benefit of a WSW vs. WWA vs. nothing? Is the public helped at all or does it just cause bread and milk panic? Come on now, of course it is to help the public. 99.99% of the world doesn't obsess over modeling and the changeability of forecasts like the zealots on this board do. So they need to tread carefully when issuing watches and warnings, and they are here. Given the complicated nature of this storm and how easy we could miss in any of a variety of ways, waiting until mid-afternoon today to make the next move is certainly defensible and, frankly, prudent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I totally agree with LWX holding off hoisting any watches. Way too many variables still. Can't cry wolf too many more times and be expected to be listened to. This is almost a double thread-the-needle situation. Would be prudent to wait. Also, general question: Don't ULLs typically track a little further north than modeled even a few hours out? I seem to recall this in past storms, but I would defer to someone who actually knows. I highly suggest you read through the thread to the comments of Wes and Baroclinic as last night's runs unfolded. It's all there. Per their comments, there is good reason to think this will dump appreciable snow across the area. Doesn't mean it will, but that this set-up has a real chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 One heck of slug of moisture down in the gulf and heading northeast. Also see moisture developing NC/SC boarder around Myrtle Beach/Wilmington. Am I wrong, or do we not care about that? Most of the precip from the coastal will miss us to the east and any that gets in here would be rain for us. All of our fantasy snow comes from the ULL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Am I wrong, or do we not care about that? Most of the precip from the coastal will miss us to the east and any that gets in here would be rain for us. All of our fantasy snow comes from the ULL. Your trolling is exquisite this morning. Props on that, I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swiscaster Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Your trolling is exquisite this morning. Props on that, I guess. Thanks, bud! Nothing else to do on my way to work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Thanks, bud! Nothing else to do on my way to work! I assume you are five-posted, so hopefully it as at an end. And, since you are so unbelieveably lazy you can't bother to read last night's pretty damn decent discussion on this here thread, here is what Usedtobe (Wes) said as it unfolded about the ULL: Wes said: The 500h low closes off so far south it would be tough to have it get much farther north at our latitude (I think but of course could be wrong). Doesn't mean it will come off like modeled last night, but there are apparently good reasons why it might. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Question: the Futurecast displays that the local stations use - is this proprietary technology? Is it generally available to the public? Is it based on one model run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Your trolling is exquisite this morning. Props on that, I guess. Should be ok for posters to raise legit questions and observations about the evolving situation. 0z suite was great, but those runs will be obsolete later this morning. It still remains a thread the needle scenario for higher accumulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Should be ok for posters to raise legit questions and observations about the evolving situation. 0z suite was great, but those runs will be obsolete later this morning. It still remains a thread the needle scenario for higher accumulations. Raise legit quesitons? What he raised was addressed in this thread by red taggers last night, and easily accessible if he reads. It's like clockwork with him, and designed to either have someone hold his hand or otherwise to irritate. Either way, it sucks to start each morning reading his crap. Heck, re: his "am I wrong" bit above, the LWX discussion clearly addresses that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Am I wrong, or do we not care about that? Most of the precip from the coastal will miss us to the east and any that gets in here would be rain for us. All of our fantasy snow comes from the ULL. I care about real weather and the storm development. Models had Low Pressure along the Gulf Coast and moisture along SC/NC boarder. All am saying is I think these are positive signs when I look 'out my window'. I will worry about H5 vort latter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
budice2002 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Whats going on with NWS radar, it seems to be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I care about real weather and the storm development. Models had Low Pressure along the Gulf Coast and moisture along SC/NC boarder. All am saying is I think these are positive signs when I look 'out my window'. I will worry about H5 vort latter. I guess the questions for your last two posts would be 1) why does it matter, and 2) is what you posted adding any pertinent information to the discussion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Based in the 06Z run, 2" to 4" N and W of Baltimore and Washington seems easy and reasonable. Higher amounts are certainly possible but not probable. In DC itself, 1" to 2" is probable. Precip is coming in two waves; only the second wave will give snow that precipitates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caps1980 Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 All this morning I've heard on the TV is that the accumulating snow portion of the storm will be coming tomorrow afternoon. Is there any time frame.Should I be making plans to leave work early to head from Rosedale back to Eldersburg where I live,if it comes during evening rush hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I guess the questions for your last two posts would be 1) why does it matter, and 2) is what you posted adding any pertinent information to the discussion? k...bust my balls. It is ok. Since all the other posts in this 10 day thread have been pertinent to the discussion. I am just making a point, and maybe it is not relative but at least it has to do with the storm, that what I observe on radar is matching what the models are forecasting for this timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 k...bust my balls. It is ok. Since all the other posts in this 10 day thread have been pertinent to the discussion. I am just making a point, and maybe it is not relative but at least it has to do with the storm, that what I observe on radar is matching what the models are forecasting. K have fun. EDIT: Also not saying that their posts are any better... at least they're talking about our region. First call map From Justin Berk's Facebook: http://www.facebook....315.54875673475 Literally posted less than a page ago. Please read through the recent posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Raise legit quesitons? What he raised was addressed in this thread by red taggers last night, and easily accessible if he reads. It's like clockwork with him, and designed to either have someone hold his hand or otherwise to irritate. Either way, it sucks to start each morning reading his crap. Heck, re: his "am I wrong" bit above, the LWX discussion clearly addresses that. No doubt that poster is irritating and predictable. Just noting that the 0z suite won't mean anything after today's runs. 6z nam and gfs could certainly reverse at 12z or later, but these are all simulated outcomes until the actual weather hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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