Symblized Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know how much better it could get for us at this stage of the game that is pretty, freakin' incredible If the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 oh hai there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I don't know how much better it could get for us at this stage of the game that is pretty, freakin' incredible It sure is, if the Euro comes in like the other globals i will put a bow on it and sleep till tomorrow night . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 MBY is directly under the frontolysis - I should set my sights on about an inch. HOWEVER - I am honored to take one straight up the ass for the Team - IF the team gets to have a foot of fresh snow Frontogenesis means "birth of a front" and frontolysis is the breakdown of a front--and it is typically measured in degrees K/(hour*100km). One thing to be REAL careful with is the development of a frontal zone, from a baroclinic sense, means the atmosphere is increasing the thermal graident along the front due to atmospheric imbalances. The atmosphere responds by trying to "balance" out the imbalance--what is called a thermally direct circulation. What the atmosphere will do is try to balance it out through the motion of atmospheric air parcels as well as through precipitation processes. Heavy qpf is one way to "weaken" a frontal circulation and to create atmospheric balance. The frontolysis on that chart may very well be heavy precip falling through the frontal zone and cooling that layer--resulting in a brief weaking of the front. Vertical forcing/ascent must also be used in conjunction with frontogenesis/frontolysis charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 6-1 is not absurd at all depending on the thermal profile and a number of other factors. Yes to start for DC--and it could very well remain that to areas just SE on the dividing line of significantly higher ratios. Unfortunately a huge number of factors come into play regarding snow ratios since it is accumulated snow/liquid water. One could have extremely high ratios aloft but then a shallow melting layer which compacts wet snow into a slush giving relatively low snow ratios, for instance. i understand what you're saying but in these situations you're likely to get some sort of banding and ull's tend to produce fluffier snow as they snow over you. i've been thru enough around here and up the coast to see it. sure 6-1 is possible especially if you stay in light/mod snow but as a general rule im not sure it's useful unless you want to downplay the event... which is generally wise around here as well. let's talk again tomorrow as it's setting up... until then it's all theoretical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 i understand what you're saying but in these situations you're likely to get some sort of banding and ull's tend to produce fluffier snow as they snow over you. i've been thru enough around here and up the coast to see it. sure 6-1 is possible especially if you stay in light/mod snow but as a general rule im not sure it's useful unless you want to downplay the event... which is generally wise around here as well. let's talk again tomorrow as it's setting up... until then it's all theoretical. Yeah I know--just making sure you weren't suggesting 6-1 is an unrealistic value. For the record I believe a higher value is likely with the increased shift NW of the UL--and the 6-1 was a low end value with a farther displaced Se upper low and a deep isothermal layer like earlier runs suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 Watch the euro be ots or show 2.6 at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 our new best buddy already dropping some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DC and west is money - That region is PRICELESS. Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows this. Posters who had the insight to move to those western DC suburbs will be staying up for three days straight as crazy heavy snow will crush them utterly TO DEATH. Those communities are about to get Belmar'ed like on Boxing Day. I'm SOUTH. I'm going to use my noggin on this one. I know where I live. I am going to set my sights on 1 to 3 inches from this. I will be extremely MIXY throughout. I don't give a d@mn if we have model consensus across every model known to meteorological science and they ALL declare 36 inches in northern VA. I REFUSE to believe I get more than 1-2 inches. I will not have my heart broken again. I spent my life running my big fat mouth about snow and cold and I DESERVE my fate - I will never be moving an INCH north or west from Dale City. If I get to move anywhere, it will be to Miami FLORIDA. I don't even get to VISIT west DC let alone move there in this lifetime or the next 99999999999999999999999999999999999 billion years. This storm has got its eyes SET on DC WEST and then points NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Earthlight just posted the SUNY SB QPF on Ny Thread and appeared to suggest it shows DC with 1.5'. Am I reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 More than anything I am really excited to see the TV mets scramble and revise their forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 DC and west is money - That region is PRICELESS. Anyone with an ounce of common sense knows this. Posters who had the insight to move to those western DC suburbs will be staying up for three days straight as crazy heavy snow will crush them utterly TO DEATH. Those communities are about to get Belmar'ed like on Boxing Day. I'm SOUTH. I'm going to use my noggin on this one. I know where I live. I am going to set my sights on 1 to 3 inches from this. I don't give a d@mn if we have model consensus across every model known to meteorological science and they ALL declare 36 inches in northern VA. I REFUSE to believe I get more than 1-2 inches. I will not have my heart broken again. I spent my life running my big fat mouth about snow and cold and I DESERVE my fate - I will never be moving an INCH north or west from Dale City. If I get to move anywhere, it will be to Miami FLORIDA. I don't even get to VISIT west DC let alone move there in this lifetime or the next 99999999999999999999999999999999999 billion years. This storm has got its eyes SET on DC WEST and then points NE. Always entertaining, hope you get a good Jebwalk out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think its pretty much a lock that most of us should be under watches in about 3 hours...I hope we can put the brakes on any trending one way or the other at this point...I'm not trying to be greedy and shoot for the stars here. We're already at a perfect thread the needle scenario. I hope nobody starts cliff jumping when the models do the inevitable QPF cut backs...we should all be well versed in the drill....I was saying 2 to 4 earlier, but I think 3 to 6 is reasonable and more than any of us could have hoped for even 12 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think its pretty much a lock that most of us should be under watches in about 3 hours...I hope we can put the brakes on any trending one way or the other at this point...I'm not trying to be greedy and shoot for the stars here. We're already at a perfect thread the needle scenario. I hope nobody starts cliff jumping when the models do the inevitable QPF cut backs...we should all be well versed in the drill....I was saying 2 to 4 earlier, but I think 3 to 6 is reasonable and more than any of us could have hoped for even 12 hours ago. weren't you and me doing the same thing Randy 11 years ago right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 here was my first post 7 days ago in the Psuhoffman thread Posted 18 January 2011 - 06:56 AM Screw the Friday event. The storm for this time frame looks way better and has full model support...Gfs...euro...ggem...jma... And...it's backed by Psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 euro is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think its pretty much a lock that most of us should be under watches in about 3 hours...I hope we can put the brakes on any trending one way or the other at this point...I'm not trying to be greedy and shoot for the stars here. We're already at a perfect thread the needle scenario. I hope nobody starts cliff jumping when the models do the inevitable QPF cut backs...we should all be well versed in the drill....I was saying 2 to 4 earlier, but I think 3 to 6 is reasonable and more than any of us could have hoped for even 12 hours ago. I love how 3-6 is like cautious at this point lol... Wow how things have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 total qpf off MM5 surely some rain in there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think its pretty much a lock that most of us should be under watches in about 3 hours...I hope we can put the brakes on any trending one way or the other at this point...I'm not trying to be greedy and shoot for the stars here. We're already at a perfect thread the needle scenario. I hope nobody starts cliff jumping when the models do the inevitable QPF cut backs...we should all be well versed in the drill....I was saying 2 to 4 earlier, but I think 3 to 6 is reasonable and more than any of us could have hoped for even 12 hours ago. there is going to be a time where its drizzle/rain/wet snow mixed in...clouds breaking up a bit and the weenie suicides will be in full mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 Earthlight just posted the SUNY SB QPF on Ny Thread and appeared to suggest it shows DC with 1.5'. Am I reading that right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I think its pretty much a lock that most of us should be under watches in about 3 hours...I hope we can put the brakes on any trending one way or the other at this point...I'm not trying to be greedy and shoot for the stars here. We're already at a perfect thread the needle scenario. I hope nobody starts cliff jumping when the models do the inevitable QPF cut backs...we should all be well versed in the drill....I was saying 2 to 4 earlier, but I think 3 to 6 is reasonable and more than any of us could have hoped for even 12 hours ago. if this was last yr ppl would have been all over this like 24 hrs ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 total qpf off MM5 surely some rain in there Even factoring the rain that is a good 10-12" for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 This is mighty. Winter storm watches are needed soon. I think its pretty much a lock that most of us should be under watches in about 3 hours... I'm glad we agree on something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 weren't you and me doing the same thing Randy 11 years ago right now? Ah yes..neweather...me writing Dewey and email and him responded...that AFD he wrote "CLOSE BUT NO CIGAR"... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 weren't you and me doing the same thing Randy 11 years ago right now? Oh man.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 I'm glad we agree on something. Actually we didn't. I waiting for a whole suite of runs to make an informed conclusion, whereas you waited 2 seconds after the first model of the 0z...a model notorious for overdoing QPF. Other than that, good post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 850s are cooler thru 36.. sunk south quite a bit compared to 12z in nova/dc area.. dc still north of it with precip moving in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 now when we say this storm has jan 25 all over it, what storm will we be referring too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2011 Author Share Posted January 25, 2011 850s are cooler thru 36.. sunk south quite a bit compared to 12z in nova/dc area.. dc still north of it with precip moving in is it possible that western burbs see an all snow event or lets not get carried away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 25, 2011 Share Posted January 25, 2011 now when we say this storm has jan 25 all over it, what storm will we be referring too? The one that happens a month after a disaster, not on January 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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