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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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really, NAM is in its range

its the range when it hit home runs last year

now we have the RGEM right there with it, slamming us

I'm gonna bust and I can't get any happier

i think we're locking in, but we got some more to get thru.. we'll see. snow is good for everyone.

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I love when you talk dirty to me, what do you think the odds are of this Nam run coming close to actually verifying?.

The likelihood the general synoptic setup and placement of the upper level features is relatively high. The exact placement of the deformation band is tricky because if the upper PV max came in a tad weaker and/or stronger, the placement of the deformation band can change a lot even if the upper low takes the exact same track. These large CCB/deformation bands in tight, compact lows are very tricky for the models to simulate since they tend to have sharp cutoffs--so any tiny displacement can result in huge forecast differences. Snow probability is creeping up past the "likely" probability of 60% or higher, the exact NAM verbatim is still in the 40% or so category but going up fast since it is by no means a total outlier.

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that's because they're hillbillies!

Going by the NAM runs of 18z and 0z, it sure looks like the precip gets here much faster than originally forecast. I guess if the GFS and EC stay solid, WSW will be out by morning.

By the way Mitch, I'll address that comment after we're out of storm mode.

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The likelihood the general synoptic setup and placement of the upper level features is relatively high. The exact placement of the deformation band is tricky because if the upper PV max came in a tad weaker and/or stronger, the placement of the deformation band can change a lot even if the upper low takes the exact same track. These large CCB/deformation bands in tight, compact lows are very tricky for the models to simulate since they tend to have sharp cutoffs--so any tiny displacement can result in huge forecast differences. Snow probability is creeping up past the "likely" probability of 60% or higher, the exact NAM verbatim is still in the 40% or so category but going up fast since it is by no means a total outlier.

Thank you, you are the best with your explanations :thumbsup::snowman: .

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