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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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I kinda smile everytime someone mentions the H5 track being the cause. I said a week ago what I liked about this setup was the look at h5 and that it had support from all guidance at that time, GFS/Euro/GGEM. Things started to look very bleak a few days ago when it seemed the timing of the storm was going to be absolutely horrible and come directly between cold shots. This has been the complete opposite of every other storm we have deal with this year. In all those the H5 was crap but the models showed a nice looking surface map from 7 days out. Then we had to watch as it corrected and the surface slowly started to look like sh*t also. This time the H5 has been good consistently for a week, and now we are seeing the surface look better as we move towards gametime. This is why when we do model threads and post graphics I wish the H3, H5, and H7 progs would get posted more and the surface less. The precip and nice drawn in blue line are pretty to look at but total bullsh*t most times from a week out.

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you know, there's a clipper of sorts moving through the GL and that, I believe is going to save our butts

here's links to current slp, 3 hrs pressure drops and wind streamlines off Unysis

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=pr&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=3p&inv=0&t=cur

http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_con.php?image=st&inv=0&t=cur

the front hanging south off the clipper has made it as far east as western Indiana as of 5 PM (go back to previous hours to see its progression)

that should make it through our area by tomorrow at this time

otoh, if you see the wind shift not progress east come tomorrow morning, we could be in trouble

and no, I'm not saying the models don't see this, just mentioning it because I believe it to be an important feature and, possibly, the saving grace y=to us getting snow

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I kinda smile everytime someone mentions the H5 track being the cause. I said a week ago what I liked about this setup was the look at h5 and that it had support from all guidance at that time, GFS/Euro/GGEM. Things started to look very bleak a few days ago when it seemed the timing of the storm was going to be absolutely horrible and come directly between cold shots. This has been the complete opposite of every other storm we have deal with this year. In all those the H5 was crap but the models showed a nice looking surface map from 7 days out. Then we had to watch as it corrected and the surface slowly started to look like sh*t also. This time the H5 has been good consistently for a week, and now we are seeing the surface look better as we move towards gametime. This is why when we do model threads and post graphics I wish the H3, H5, and H7 progs would get posted more and the surface less. The precip and nice drawn in blue line are pretty to look at but total bullsh*t most times from a week out.

im sure you're in heaven.. ;) i think the bigger issue in range was just it's range.

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Because the sun angle is better aligned with the apps this time of year we get a good bit of sun damming and that is a problem. I don't worry about the time zone stuff until daylight savings. That's when you see a serious uptick in temp because of the extra hour of daylight.

who was it that actually asked if the extra hour of sunlight would hurt our chances for snow a few years ago when they moved daylight savings time into early March. That was so classic.

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I'll eat my textbooks if we see a Feb 2010-esque event here. Accumulation after rain in an urban environment is never something that I would want to count on. But, you know, last year seemed to thread the needle every time, why not now? Who needs rain?

When it snows hard enough, it is only a matter of time before it starts sticking. There's no way we get .5"+ of QPF as snow, in a few hours, and have no accumulation.

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I have way too much experience with surface temps killing accumulations down here around DCA to completely discount the idea. I've watched it snow moderately for hours with not a thing to show for it sitting at 34 while a short drive up the Parkway past Rosslyn it's 32 with significant accumulations. I'm cautiously optimistic on this one though.

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Going on record... all snow immediately north and west of IAD. Book it

I would tend to agree with this. Last year Dec 5 IAD saw 5 inches while dc barely got a half an inch. I think there will be a period of light rain even at IAD NW, but it will transition to snow much quicker than DC.

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who was it that actually asked if the extra hour of sunlight would hurt our chances for snow a few years ago when they moved daylight savings time into early March. That was so classic.

Can remember for the life of me but that is exactly why I said it. That was one of the more comical posts since I've been on the board.

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I have way too much experience with surface temps killing accumulations down here around DCA to completely discount the idea. I've watched it snow moderately for hours with not a thing to show for it sitting at 34 while a short drive up the Parkway past Rosslyn it's 32 with significant accumulations. I'm cautiously optimistic on this one though.

Examples?

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I would tend to agree with this. Last year Dec 5 IAD saw 5 inches while dc barely got a half an inch. I think there will be a period of light rain even at IAD NW, but it will transition to snow much quicker than DC.

And somehow Frederick was just about shut out of that event.....maybe a .5'. Areas all around us were 5-8".

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And somehow Frederick was just about shut out of that event.....maybe a .5'. Areas all around us were 5-8".

It was elevation. Elevation won't be as much of a factor in this storm, but in that event, the fact that Frederick was in a valley really screwed the area. Maybe it was also about missing out on the heavier bands.

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It was elevation. Elevation won't be as much of a factor in this storm, but in that event, the fact that Frederick was in a valley really screwed the area. Maybe it was also about missing out on the heavier bands.

The hills to the W didn't get much of anything either.....even over 1500'. There was just no qpf over our area.....I watched the radar in disbelief during that event.

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I have way too much experience with surface temps killing accumulations down here around DCA to completely discount the idea. I've watched it snow moderately for hours with not a thing to show for it sitting at 34 while a short drive up the Parkway past Rosslyn it's 32 with significant accumulations. I'm cautiously optimistic on this one though.

When precip rates are light, anytime temps are just above freezing it's a big problem. With what is being shown right now, 35 degrees can easily be overcome with the type of rates being modeled. As soon as everything is covered, the melting machine gets pretty much shut down. Quite a few of us will be below 32 for a good time while precip is coming down.

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im sure you're in heaven.. ;) i think the bigger issue in range was just it's range.

Of course I am rooting this on, its my namesake, but I realize that if it does end up being our first significant snowfall I was just as much lucky as good. I identified a pattern that at least gave us a chance at snow versus the past few really crappy looking ones. I said we would at least have a shot this week because the H5 would dig south of our lattitude to our west and that puts us in the game. I felt it was legit because while the models have sucked with specific timing in the northern branch this time they were pretty universal at digging a nice trough into the Miss Valley early this week. I figured why not and put it out there. The fact that so far it has evolved pretty close to what I invisioned is more luck then anything else. More often then not even with good model support from 7 days out things will not evolve the exact way I expect. Its just a shame this did not time up with the cold a little better as we would be looking at a HECS probably, but if we can sneak out the back door with 2-4 in the cities and 3-6 n/w I think its a pertty good event given what we have had this year.

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It was elevation. Elevation won't be as much of a factor in this storm, but in that event, the fact that Frederick was in a valley really screwed the area. Maybe it was also about missing out on the heavier bands.

Yeah, Frederick itself isn't a great location for many a winter storm. Go several miles in any direction with elevation, and accumulations are better, sometimes significantly so. Out where I live, we can be as much as 6 or 7 degrees cooler, even though we're only about 6 miles west of the city. There are times it'll be snowing here, and raining down there. Even if you look at the snowfall annual average maps (that have been posted here many times), it's pretty easy to spot where Frederick is located based only on average snowfall accumulations.

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I have way too much experience with surface temps killing accumulations down here around DCA to completely discount the idea. I've watched it snow moderately for hours with not a thing to show for it sitting at 34 while a short drive up the Parkway past Rosslyn it's 32 with significant accumulations. I'm cautiously optimistic on this one though.

That is possible, but not absolute. 2/22/87 I believe had pretty marginal temps. We have also not been above freezing for over 72 hours. So even a brief trip into 40's may not be as bad as we may think. Even 12/19/10 had several days in a row of 40's even 50's prior to the event, so with the recent freeze here, the marginal temps may be a bit easier to overcome especially if the dynamics of storm produce as advertised.

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Another consideration with this wet snow is the ratios. 10-1 would be a pipedream, even 8-1 too high. What you would likely see is heavy, wet large conglomerated flakes that melt early on then accumulate and compact into a wet, moisture laden snow. 6-1 would probably be a realistic snow ratio. 5-7" would be a high end threat even with the crazy NAM, 2-4/3-5" is a realistic threat as is verbatim.

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Another consideration with this wet snow is the ratios. 10-1 would be a pipedream, even 8-1 too high. What you would likely see is heavy, wet large conglomerated flakes that melt early on then accumulate and compact into a wet, moisture laden snow. 6-1 would probably be a realistic snow ratio. 5-7" would be a high end threat even with the crazy NAM, 2-4/3-5" is a realistic threat as is verbatim.

Do the snow maps take such low ratios into account?

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