Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Wow verbatim that would be a 5+ inch snowfall from DC south through Central VA. Seems too good to be true. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The colder solutions are ironic as the NWS updated my forecast with mostly rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm not letting myself get excited about it. I suspect that an eventual solution such as this is possible, but the memory of the runs prior to December 26 is too tangible. I realize it's a completely different setup, but I'm still really hesitant to get excited. Good run, but it seems a bit anomalous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Very, very cool tool: http://www.heywhatst...m/profiler.html Click your two (or more) points on the map and click "draw profile" over on the right. Wow- that is just simple and fantastic. Thank you for sharing and now I have another time waster on my desktop. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluehens Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Mt. Holly just removed all mention of "rain" from my forecast here in northern DE and replaced it with "snow/sleet"....it seems they think the storm will remain entirely frozen for me in one shape or another. I am not sure I buy that yet but things definitely have seemed to be progressing towards the cold side of results. I hope some of the other models start picking up on lower temps so that we all cash in. Would love to see NYC/SNE also cut out of the precip as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 QPF is extreme-- but its not far off from the ECWMF-- which has some lighter rains and then blasts the 500 low through with many of these same locations getting 1 inch in >12 hours. the euro does put down some good numbers on just that 500 low especially back in western va. the nam is always crazy in its highest qpf zone tho it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i think someone on either side of this line is going to get a huge surprise based of what several models are showing, and adjusted for the north trend BUS TIME??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yorkpa25 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Ecmwf has 1" for York, pa ,nam nothing...wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 this is a bit better than tracking that miller B last week that gave me .08 and i verified less than that even Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z RGEM at 36 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3294_100.gif 18z RGEM at 48 -- http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/3295_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swva Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Usually read the AFD... I didn't this time.. Good catch. The forecast didn't match the AFD but agree on the watches for in the morning if the models hold overnight. Going to be interesting the next couple days. Office AFD did say 4-6 with less east. I'm not sure if they get the EC eval done before releasing those. If the models are similiar at 0z-- i expect watches hoisted, at least for the NRV> These 500 low events are tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Usually read the AFD... I didn't this time.. Good catch. The forecast didn't match the AFD but agree on the watches for in the morning if the models hold overnight. Going to be interesting the next couple days. I'm pumped, we got the GFS< NAM AND EC all bringing the 500 low into a favorable spot. I'm not expecting an inch of QPF but I can see max areas getting .8 or so-- I really like 4-8 inches for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z RGEM at 36 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3294_100.gif 18z RGEM at 48 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif looks like a big back end smackin to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 BUS TIME??? This is more like it...an Arlington Special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like LWX went to Snow for Tue Night, Rain/Snow mix for Wed and Snow for Wed night for Bmore with a max of 36 on Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 18z RGEM at 36 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3294_100.gif 18z RGEM at 48 -- http://www.weatherof...st/3295_100.gif looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like a big back end smackin to follow Its a large 0.4-0.6 QPF shield, thats for sure. 10mm is about 0.4 QPF... and I am sure there is some 15mm's in there cause the range is 10-25mm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Its a large 0.4-0.6 QPF shield, thats for sure. 10mm is about 0.4 QPF... and I am sure there is some 15mm's in there cause the range is 10-25mm If that is all snow then that is certainly a good whopping of snow (especially this winter). I'm liking the looks of the models as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i think someone on either side of this line is going to get a huge surprise based of what several models are showing, and adjusted for the north trend Agreed Seriously, I think you're right now. My excitement level has gone up a bit...but it will be dashed in 30 minutes by the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 looks like a big back end smackin to follow Is that a technical wx term? Jokes aside, given the setup it's almost hard to believe that the models are all coming around to a FAVORABLE solution for our area. My expectations have been muted but the track and placement of the H5 has kept me more than interested. Now ULL enegy is looking to help overcome the temp issues and obvious lack of cold air. The weenie term "manufacture it's own cold air" is in play here. Sure there will be some light N winds drawing in air from PA but the reality is the dynamics are looking to potentially give us a good thump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Is that a technical wx term? Jokes aside, given the setup it's almost hard to believe that the models are all coming around to a FAVORABLE solution for our area. My expectations have been muted but the track and placement of the H5 has kept me more than interested. Now ULL enegy is looking to help overcome the temp issues and obvious lack of cold air. The weenie term "manufacture it's own cold air" is in play here. Sure there will be some light N winds drawing in air from PA but the reality is the dynamics are looking to potentially give us a good thump. softball i guess. lwx discussion talked about lack of dynamics. they could be right but it's not every day you get an h5 like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is an intersting snippet regarding the modeling of this system from the NWS NYC's afternoon AFD........... "NOTE THAT NOAA WINTER RECONNAISSANCE IS BEING FLOWN FOR THIS SYSTEM IN THE GULF OVERNIGHT. THESE CRITICAL OBSERVATIONS WILL GET INCLUDED INTO TOMORROW'S 12Z AND SUBSEQUENT MODEL CYCLES. THUS EXPECT THINGS TO BECOME CLEARER TOMORROW." I was not aware they flew recons into winter storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I have very high-speed internet here at work and that picture almost crashed my puter. May want to shrink or delete cause I'm sure it's even worse for others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 here's a little huge pic from my weekend visit to Breckenridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My god that picture is huge - please delete that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 LOL - sorry about that folks. Didn't have any problems viewing it on my end. My god that picture is huge - please delete that post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlYourWxPal Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the NAM may do better with the temperature profile in this case since it is a mesoscale model which would help it better pick up on the dynamical cooling than the global models. That's my opinion at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Nam looks great, hopefully trend stops here. I think the "west" trend on the NAM is done, but I do think it will trend north a bit more. Models are all converging on a solution pretty close to the 12z Euro/UKMET solution. The ensembles have been pretty close to that solution for days now and have handled this consistently and well overall. The good news is that the euro has been running warm lately so the track and precip of the euro with a 1.5 degree adjustment downward gives a really nice result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the "west" trend on the NAM is done, but I do think it will trend north a bit more. Models are all converging on a solution pretty close to the 12z Euro/UKMET solution. The ensembles have been pretty close to that solution for days now and have handled this consistently and well overall. The good news is that the euro has been running warm lately so the track and precip of the euro with a 1.5 degree adjustment downward gives a really nice result. 1-1.5 degrees... Celsius? :-) :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think the "west" trend on the NAM is done, but I do think it will trend north a bit more. Models are all converging on a solution pretty close to the 12z Euro/UKMET solution. The ensembles have been pretty close to that solution for days now and have handled this consistently and well overall. The good news is that the euro has been running warm lately so the track and precip of the euro with a 1.5 degree adjustment downward gives a really nice result. If DCA ends up with 4 or more inches of snow, we should name something permanetly after PSUHoffman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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