usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 For 2 days out and almost complete model concensus things look pretty good when considering the season so far That's not saying much but we could have a period with reduced visibilities from snow and have snow accumulate on grassy surfaces especially the western guys and gals. Ji should be excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 O RLY? Bullish in what fashion? i like my chances for some accum at least .. someone northwest should do really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i like my chances for some accum at least .. someone northwest should do really well. I think alot of us would take 2-4 of wet snow and run with it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As far as this borderline rain/snow discussion is concerned, I can't help but think about the numerous times in New Orleans where we got a surprise snow from the temps being a degree or three lower than forecasted, mainly due to the intense QPF we always had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Will the temps being in the 40's tomorrow significantly affect ground temps., or will they be cold enough from today? Additionally, decent chances of a watch in the afternoon package? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That's not saying much but we could have a period with reduced visibilities from snow and have snow accumulate on grassy surfaces especially the western guys and gals. Ji should be excited. You and I will not see as much if any but a brief period of +sn at the tail end would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Will the temps being in the 40's tomorrow significantly affect ground temps., or will they be cold enough from today? Additionally, decent chances of a watch in the afternoon package? I doubt it.. probably more like tomorrow morning's package Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 no, past 1" for everyone does the 1" line go as far west as Winchester? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 you may not last long with these kinds of posts Storm mode come on people please cut out the OT worthless posts and add something the other 200 members in this thread want to read Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I doubt it.. probably more like tomorrow morning's package i'd put them up for parts of the area later today, we'll be about 36 hrs out. i think there's plenty of continuity to say folks well nw are going to have a good shot at hitting warning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How's the Euro look in the long range? Specifically the clipper on Sunday and the much rumored DT Facebook Storm #2 in early Feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 How's the Euro look in the long range? Specifically the clipper on Sunday and the much rumored DT Facebook Storm #2 in early Feb? only out to 174... dry so far. clipper goes thru central new england. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i'd put them up for parts of the area later today, we'll be about 36 hrs out. i think there's plenty of continuity to say folks well nw are going to have a good shot at hitting warning snow. I think Trixie and company have a great shot a warning criteria snow. Even farther in like Leesburg and Frederick MD have a decent shot especially the higher terrain just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blazeKing Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'd like to go with the 6z nam, euro busting high on temps solution... but hasn't the euro only busted on temp forecasts this winter when there was strong high pressure in place , as well as in situations of CAD? Models could easily be underdoing the projected warmup ahead of the low. GFS seems to be catching onto it. I do like the fact that DT has me as rain. According to DT final calls I have at least 20" so far..I am sitting at about 3" this winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpljr77 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Elevation will be key. So what kind of elevation are we talking, just out of curiosity? For example, Silver Spring is definitely not West, but it's at 300+ ft (I'm at 320). Is that enough to overcome the Easterness? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So what kind of elevation are we talking, just out of curiosity? For example, Silver Spring is definitely not West, but it's at 300+ ft (I'm at 320). Is that enough to overcome the Easterness? I think Silver Spring definitely has a better chance of getting a few inches than, say, DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JPete Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm really trying to follow along and evaluate data on my own, but I fall into a kind of "no-man's land" on these boards. I don't find a ton of information on my area in the Mid Atlantic or PA forums and don't have enough knowledge to make my own predictions. Any insight into how N Baltimore County/ Southern York County is looking now that the models seem to be coming to a consensus? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
notvirga! Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/10210-psu-hoffman-storm-threat-continued/page__view__findpost__p__351104 please read instead of typing. sorry, I did read that but misunderstood the first time. I got the picture. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So how badly am I goosed here in Annapolis? Each degree makes a HUGE difference. I don't think you should assume you are screwed, rather just you have a higher chance of being screwed than points west. 3-4 degree shift, which certainly happens somewhat often, gives you snow...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm really trying to follow along and evaluate data on my own, but I fall into a kind of "no-man's land" on these boards. I don't find a ton of information on my area in the Mid Atlantic or PA forums and don't have enough knowledge to make my own predictions. Any insight into how N Baltimore County/ Southern York County is looking now that the models seem to be coming to a consensus? Thanks! You and I will both see the blue line in the sky. It will be over my house and slightly off the SE at your place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpljr77 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 we are too far away from this storm for IMBY questions like this. the probabilities and possibilities have been laid out by Ian, Wes, and USAFwx. this kind of stuff will get you 5 posted or suspended. read through the thread. Totally didn't mean it as an IMBY question, that's just the only elevations I know offhand. I am genuinely curious about what kind of elevation change impacts borderline events like this...in the abstract, even, rather than specific to Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's way too early to start talking about accumulations as they will depend on the surface temp, when the rain changes to snow and on the intensity of the precipitation. Right now all those things are up in the air. All we can say for sure is we're getting lots of precip, people living west are more likely to get bigger accumulations than people living east and that right now the track of the 500 low would favor some snow at the back end for most of us. At least that's my opinion of what we know right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Caps1980 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I too,like many others have been lurking for quite a while and finally have decided to join the fun. Weather watching has become a hobby recently and I enjoy seeing everyone's comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This looks like it's going to be a really interesting event to watch unfold for those of us on I95. Seems like the type of scenario where we can get last minute suprises or last minute disappointments but either way should be a fun ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr No Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Will the temps being in the 40's tomorrow significantly affect ground temps., or will they be cold enough from today? Additionally, decent chances of a watch in the afternoon package? That and the piercing Jan. sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I think Trixie and company have a great shot a warning criteria snow. Even farther in like Leesburg and Frederick MD have a decent shot especially the higher terrain just to the west. I'm dreading that I live in the valley now....we seem to have been under progged temps all winter though. So we'll see. It is going to be very close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Very nice consistency among the 12z GFS ensemble members. They're all a bit faster and a bit farther east than the Op, leading to a colder/snowier solution. Ensemble mean looks to keep areas JUST north/west of I-95 all (or nearly all) frozen. 850mb 0C line looks to stay on or south of the cities for the duration of the precip, it's the surface temps that are the issue. Surface 0C line looks to get as far north/west as a Winchester/Hagerstown line, and then falls back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's way too early to start talking about accumulations as they will depend on the surface temp, when the rain changes to snow and on the intensity of the precipitation. Right now all those things are up in the air. All we can say for sure is we're getting lots of precip, people living west are more likely to get bigger accumulations than people living east and that right now the track of the 500 low would favor some snow at the back end for most of us. At least that's my opinion of what we know right now. Thank you, Wes. Keep up the great work and analysis... will you have a CWG blog today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 That and the piercing Jan. sun angle. I wouldn't worry about that yet. If the surface temp cools so will the ground and if the precip is heavy enough it will stick, but that's all so up in the air right now for 95 that I wouldn't waste too much time thinking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Thank you, Wes. Keep up the great work and analysis... will you have a CWG blog today? Not today, Jason used a quote. I'll be doing one tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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