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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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hr 54 0c in bristol to winchester

lyh to ezf +4

hr 60 0c lyh due north to winchester

ric dc +4

hr 66 0c va beach to just east of bwi

0.50" ric to dc somewhere in this it should go over to snow

hr 72 0c sucks back north to near ric to va beach another 0.10+ for ric to dc

This sounds like the POTENTIAL for QPF of .25"+ of wet snow for the I-95 corridor

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pretty much how it has been.. 850s back to about the blue ridge.. trixie stays below 0c at 850 the whole time, but sw of there warms for a period. other than temps this run is about exactly what we want.

I will probably get tagged a weenie for this statement but the thermal profiles have sucked on the euro this year for just about every event.

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Do you know what the surface and 850 temps are? If some of that is snow plus that 0.25"+ at 72hrs...this is sounding pretty good.

warmest is about hr 60 with the low on the nc/va border tho 850 already crashing east thru central va at that pt, but still backed to about hgr thru central loudoun then due south. most places have seen about .5" or so thru then.

after that 850 crashes east across the area as the ull passes. it happens during the next panel so i can't say all the .5" is frozen or even trying to be frozen. the next panel should be all frozen tho who knows if surface temps are right.

surface temps still suck verbatim.. 32 f still northwest of the cities when it's ending.

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This sounds like the POTENTIAL for QPF of .25"+ of wet snow for the I-95 corridor

Per Ian's comments, .5"+ at 66hrs with borderline conditions for I-95 plus .25" at 72hrs. If ~half of that 66hr precip is snow, that could be WSW criteria for I-95. :snowman:

Yes...that was a very weenieesque thing to do, but I want some snow!

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I will probably get tagged a weenie for this statement but the thermal profiles have sucked on the euro this year for just about every event.

Nah, the statement is true. Most of us like the Euro solution with that knowledge lingering in the back of the mind. Odds are more snow and further SE than what the Euro shows verbatim.

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Per Ian's comments, .5"+ at 66hrs with borderline conditions for I-95 plus .25" at 72hrs. If ~half of that 66hr precip is snow, that could be WSW criteria for I-95. :snowman:

Yes...that was a very weenieesque thing to do, but I want some snow!

Strongly agree.. but will wet snow accumulate at 33-35 degrees?

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thanks...but where does the 1" line go to the northeast of HGR?

if you draw a line from hgr to the northwest tip of nj everyone southeast of that is 1"+.. it is still pretty sharp to the north tho.. go about 100 miles into PA and you're in the .25" contour.

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surface temps still suck verbatim.. 32 f still northwest of the cities when it's ending.

If the surface is 33-34F and the column is below freezing or well below freezing much above the surface, that should be snow. If the above freezing temps extend up to 950-925mb (and are more than just fractionally above freezing), that's when we get into trouble.

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Per Ian's comments, .5"+ at 66hrs with borderline conditions for I-95 plus .25" at 72hrs. If ~half of that 66hr precip is snow, that could be WSW criteria for I-95. :snowman:

Yes...that was a very weenieesque thing to do, but I want some snow!

Was thinking the same thing. that's .5 as frozen. And if the Euro thermals perform as they have been this season, maybe more

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I will probably get tagged a weenie for this statement but the thermal profiles have sucked on the euro this year for just about every event.

Not at all, I showed two graphics (yesterday, I think) showing a pretty substantial low level warm bias on the Euro for the past month. I'm too lazy to dig it up.....

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I think all the models give us sloppy snow on the back end with the upper center. That makes sense looking at the strength of the 500l low and it's track.

i dont often believe in backend but every model with a good 500 track has shown it for a few days now so i guess it's legit.

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If the surface is 33-34F and the column is below freezing or well below freezing much above the surface, that should be snow. If the above freezing temps extend up to 950-925mb (and are more than just fractionally above freezing), that's when we get into trouble.

surface is "warm" but not torching. the 40F contour never gets far from southeast va. i'd guess we're mostly in the mid 30s or so in DC. so snow on the backend should not be impossible.

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i dont often believe in backend but every model with a good 500 track has shown it for a few days now so i guess it's legit.

The 1" of snow we got in the storm before the ice event was from the H5 low passing north of us, correct? That was a decent snow, and we were on the southern extreme of that.

Edited to add: By decent, I mean it was somewhat exciting

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The 1" of snow we got in the storm before the ice event was from the H5 low passing north of us, correct? That was a decent snow, and we were on the southern extreme of that.

Edited to add: By decent, I mean it was somewhat exciting

i think that was mainly warm air advection so it's not really comparable to this

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surface is "warm" but not torching. the 40F contour never gets far from southeast va. i'd guess we're mostly in the mid 30s or so in DC. so snow on the backend should not be impossible.

Sounds like pretty good agreement between the GFS and the Euro, with perhaps the Euro even a bit better for snow around here.

Again I think that someone with an extra 250' of elevation or another 10mi outside the built up surburban/urban corridor could get a really nice storm with this and the rest of us get (hopefully) a solidly high WWA type snow.

For everyone keeping track...the weenie handbook rules you need to be invoking:

1. Euro low-level warm temp bias

2. Dynamical cooling of the low levels

3. Heavy precip "dragging" cold air to the surface

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Sounds like pretty good agreement between the GFS and the Euro, with perhaps the Euro even a bit better for snow around here.

Again I think that someone with an extra 250' of elevation or another 10mi outside the built up surburban/urban corridor could get a really nice storm with this and the rest of us get (hopefully) a solidly high WWA type snow.

For everyone keeping track...the weenie handbook rules you need to be invoking:

1. Euro low-level warm temp bias

2. Dynamical cooling of the low levels

3. Heavy precip "dragging" cold air to the surface

You should write a weenie handbook, i would be first in line to buy one :thumbsup: .

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