Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You don't have to go all the way back to 2003-- last December 5 was an elevation dependent event as well. A dusting around DCA, an inch or two inside the city, up to 7" in NW Montgomery County. Very true. Got 2-3 inches in Bethesda when I lived out there and drove into downtown DC and saw nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I don't remember the exact setup, but there was a storm on Dec 5, 2003 that was a "thread the needle" event for N&W of the cities. I got on the MARC train in Germantown that morning with 6-7 inches of snow on the ground and still snowing, and watched the snow quickly dwindle with each stop until I got off at Union Station to WET ground! That was one storm where being N&W really mattered. I imagine this storm will be quite similar in terms of results Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 my biggest worry is lack of QPF...it just dosent make sense to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i still like my chances for now even if the odds are weighted rainy. in a marginal situation you're not going to know the specifics till near the end. I would think that we should all be doing a happy dance just with the fact that we will see decent precip with this. Getting over .5" qpf is significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 You don't have to go all the way back to 2003-- last December 5 was an elevation dependent event as well. A dusting around DCA, an inch or two inside the city, up to 7" in NW Montgomery County. You're right...we spent that weekend at my folks down in Calvert County LOL It sure looked nice when we got back home that night though! Road were really slick -- saw several accidents on 270 North as wet pavement had turned to black ice, including one big one on that HOV-lane down ramp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 my biggest worry is lack of QPF...it just dosent make sense to me the snow hole may miniaturize to your house but it will snow in leesburg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey um... can't you just get the jist of what I was saying and leave it at that? i've been reading this forum non stop for the whole winter...I can remember some of the early runs of the EURO and GGEM that were all rain east of I81. And is the 30 miles seperating hagerstown and I81 that big of a deal? Whoa..what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As of the 12z run of the GFS, do you guys think Richmond will see snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I would think that we should all be doing a happy dance just with the fact that we will see decent precip with this. Getting over .5" qpf is significant i guess, tho i'd rather get my .5" from a cutter or something that looks terrible at all levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm feeling good about the possibility of backend stuff. Like others, I'm usually leery of believing in backend snows, but things seem to be pointing towards a little something. I'm also still feeling fairly good about being slightly cooler than some guidance is showing. I'm not expecting anything major, but a nice thump after a decent period of some sloppy snow/mix wouldn't be the end of the world. You don't have to go all the way back to 2003-- last December 5 was an elevation dependent event as well. A dusting around DCA, an inch or two inside the city, up to 7" in NW Montgomery County. I've seen people mentioning in tha past couple days that Dec 5, 2009 was a dusting around DCA. I had no idea. I'm about 15 miles or so west of DCA and ended with 4-5". And I don't know if my 300' elevation would have mattered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 As of the 12z run of the GFS, do you guys think Richmond will see snow? Are you reading anything in this thread? Or the previous threads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've seen people mentioning in tha past couple days that Dec 5, 2009 was a dusting around DCA. I had no idea. I'm about 15 miles or so west of DCA and ended with 4-5". And I don't know if my 300' elevation would have mattered. i got about 2" in the city with ~250' elevation. it was basically all snow at my location just melty snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is somewhat like the March 1-2 09 event-- we had 1-3 inches region wide from the actual SLP and another 8-10 from the ULL. Biggest difference was the -10 h85 air that was screaming in from the west. We had a slushy 2 inches at my house round one and another 8.5 ull driven. Was pretty amazing-- 5 inches in 2 hours. I'm feel pretty good at 48 hours out and the NAM/GFS bring the ULL a little to far south for me. No model will do well with the banding set ups-- March 1 had a 2 band event that dumbed a ton over the NRV region that wasn't really forecasted. They were expecting 2-4 and got 8-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2011 Author Share Posted January 24, 2011 Are you reading anything in this thread? Or the previous threads? i think all members with under 500 posts should be limited to 5 posts a day till they hit 1000 unless they are a red tag Met Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whoa..what? LOL...it's why I don't post that much...I stand corrected...post deleted...will go back to learning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12z GFS says, "hope you like it cold!". Out in lolzland, GFS pushes through an arctic front around 324hrs and then follows it with a lakes cutter at the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 This is somewhat like the March 1-2 09 event-- we had 1-3 inches region wide from the actual SLP and another 8-10 from the ULL. Biggest difference was the -10 h85 air that was screaming in from the west. We had a slushy 2 inches at my house round one and another 8.5 ull driven. Was pretty amazing-- 5 inches in 2 hours. I'm feel pretty good at 48 hours out and the NAM/GFS bring the ULL a little to far south for me. No model will do well with the banding set ups-- March 1 had a 2 band event that dumbed a ton over the NRV region that wasn't really forecasted. They were expecting 2-4 and got 8-10. i agree at least in that if the ull stays how it looks now there will be surprises. the gfs/euro have pretty much locked on its track and it's a very good one for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've seen people mentioning in tha past couple days that Dec 5, 2009 was a dusting around DCA. I had no idea. I'm about 15 miles or so west of DCA and ended with 4-5". And I don't know if my 300' elevation would have mattered. i got about 2" in the city with ~250' elevation. it was basically all snow at my location just melty snow. And all I got was a dusting and I'm S of DCA. Elev around 180. The r/s line was painfully slow to reach me that day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hagerstown is right on I-81. I know. I live 12 miles south of HGR on I-81. are you talking about Frederick? if so, please read more and post less. But you didn't answer the question - is it a BIG DEAL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I've been surprised before by the intensity of the precipitation with the upper low and can remember getting about 4 inches on a new years eve back in the mid 70s with no surface cold air to start with. We had a nice rain and then an hour or two of s plus. I remember that one from when I was living in Owings Mills. Went to bed when it was warm and raining hard and woke up New Years day to maybe 6 inches or so with a cold NW wind. Want to say that it was 1976 or 77. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dcwx Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 And all I got was a dusting and I'm S of DCA. Elev around 180. The r/s line was painfully slow to reach me that day Yeah the cutoff was really sharp. NW DC around Cleveland Park/Van Ness/Tenleytown had a good 2 inches like Ian was saying, I had closer to 3 in Bethesda; but down on K street in the city nothing was really sticking and they had rain. I would imagine it would have been even worse at DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i got about 2" in the city with ~250' elevation. it was basically all snow at my location just melty snow. Interesting. Seems that elevation may have made a difference. Mine was a pretty wet snow, as well, but it did accumulate far better than I had expected. I didn't track that one, but remember it being a real surprise that it just kept snowing and accumulating. Oh...the memories. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 It's painful that we're 48-60hrs out from this storm with the coldest air of the year over us and we're talking about rain with a beautiful 500 and surface track So removing modelology and inserting meteorology, why couldn't the models be wrong with soundings given the ideal tracks? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 i agree at least in that if the ull stays how it looks now there will be surprises. the gfs/euro have pretty much locked on its track and it's a very good one for many. I'm pickin' up what you're puttin' down. Someone will pick up a nice thump somewhere along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My car conked out in the middle of the highway this morning. Thank God there was traffic. It was 8 degrees at the time, and I got it working again eventually and was able to pull over.. scary stuff. Moral of the story: this cold better not be wasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
real Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I remember that one from when I was living in Owings Mills. Went to bed when it was warm and raining hard and woke up New Years day to maybe 6 inches or so with a cold NW wind. Want to say that it was 1976 or 77. Anyone remember a storm in 2004 or December 2005 where DC had no snow at all and Columbia Maryland ended up with 10 inches? I remember having to drive up there that day and as soon as you passed the PG/Howard County line on Interstate 95 you started seeing snow, and then by the time you got back toward Columbia on Route 32 it was like an entirely different world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GGEM has a beautiful track, but gives everyone mostly rain until you're up in the mountains. Ends as snow. Probably because the storm is weaker and can't get the cold air wrapped in. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Anyone remember a storm in 2004 or December 2005 where DC had no snow at all and Columbia Maryland ended up with 10 inches? I remember having to drive up there that day and as soon as you passed the PG/Howard County line on Interstate 95 you started seeing snow, and then by the time you got back toward Columbia on Route 32 it was like an entirely different world. That was December 2003. I got about 9" of snow from the first part of the storm, in which warmer areas were completely screwed, and 6" from the second part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 My car conked out in the middle of the highway this morning. Thank God there was traffic. It was 8 degrees at the time, and I got it working again eventually and was able to pull over.. scary stuff. Moral of the story: this cold better not be wasted. What if the cold is wasted? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 So removing modelology and inserting meteorology, why couldn't the models be wrong with soundings given the ideal tracks? Because the things that we look for to keep cold air locked in over us are either really weak or completely absent: 1. high pressure to the north 2. confluence over New England 3. 50/50 low 4. -NAO So what we're working with is "stale" cold air or what's generated in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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