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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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I think for us the best we can do is a period of sloppy snow towards the end of the event as the upper low comes by. It's going to be hard for places inside the beltway to end up as mostly snow.

yeah it is tho i want to be stubborn and say we're kinda close to getting better temps in so who knows. i was looking for marginal setups in KU last night. :arrowhead:

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That looks very rainy on the Ukie. You'd need quite a big jump east to get a snowier solution for the cities. Low pressure over the southern Chesapeake Bay = naso good for snow with no big high to keep us cold.

When I saw the track I thought the same thing. We might get snow at the tail end with the upper low but the basic track of the surface low is a little west of what we'd like.

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yeah it is tho i want to be stubborn and say we're kinda close to getting better temps in so who knows. i was looking for marginal setups in KU last night. :arrowhead:

I've been surprised before by the intensity of the precipitation with the upper low and can remember getting about 4 inches on a new years eve back in the mid 70s with no surface cold air to start with. We had a nice rain and then an hour or two of s plus.

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Well I will take my chances with this setup. I think its close to a guarantee that DC will mix, but with the cold air that we have been having, we can hope that some will stay in place.

Would love to be Gaithersburg west right now; I think you guys will be all snow with the GFS track.

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fwiw, and it's imby, but the soundings for me have gradually been improving so I assume that extrapolated out it would mean better for DC too.

i'd still not be overly confident that if the gfs track was right that we'd be as warm as it shows, but maybe im wishcasting

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Yeah, we usually do pretty well here in Towson for events like this - but I am more pessimistic with this one.

Barring a temp/track shift in the next 36 hours, I'd think we're looking at slop here at best - with maybe a token burst as the ULL swings through.

After all this cold, rain would just really put a cherry on the sucky sundae of this winter so far - hehe.

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I've been surprised before by the intensity of the precipitation with the upper low and can remember getting about 4 inches on a new years eve back in the mid 70s with no surface cold air to start with. We had a nice rain and then an hour or two of s plus.

i dont usually believe in backend snow but this signal is pretty strong at this point.

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i'd still not be overly confident that if the gfs track was right that we'd be as warm as it shows, but maybe im wishcasting

It's painful that we're 48-60hrs out from this storm with the coldest air of the year over us and we're talking about rain with a beautiful 500 and surface track :thumbsdown:

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Something that I've been thinking about this morning...

It seems like we've been tracking this storm for so long and we've literally seen about every solution on the table from a inland runner, to an OTS solution, to a strong coastal, back to an inland runner, and now a coastal again. We've still got 2 or so days before this possible changover (atm) may happen. That's still a long time. I've had to remind myself yesterday and today that this still can change for the better or the worse in the next 24-36 hrs. There is still the chance that it's a mostly rain event from I81 east, but it would seem that there is a trend to a slightly colder solution in recent model runs. I've been saying for the last three days that there is still time for this to trend to all snow or even rain and I still believe that's the case. Whatever happens it would seem that the models will continue to converge on a solution...but like I said there's still 2 days. I wouldn be suprised if the models continued to trend colder...but then again who am I?

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It's painful that we're 48-60hrs out from this storm with the coldest air of the year over us and we're talking about rain with a beautiful 500 and surface track :thumbsdown:

yeah it's kind of evil. im in full out hope for explosive development/convective banding/create its own cold air mode.

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Looking OK for us out this way (best shot of the season so far, since previous events have been well to our east). Still, would like to see this thing trend more east, so that we go all snow, and everyone around DC can also get a good period of snow out of this as well. However, even out my way, worried about it staying rain for awhile. Fingers crossed for everyone!

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I don't remember the exact setup, but there was a storm on Dec 5, 2003 that was a "thread the needle" event for N&W of the cities. I got on the MARC train in Germantown that morning with 6-7 inches of snow on the ground and still snowing, and watched the snow quickly dwindle with each stop until I got off at Union Station to WET ground! That was one storm where being N&W really mattered.

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yeah it's kind of evil. im in full out hope for explosive development/convective banding/create its own cold air mode.

Gotta love that GFS keeps a northerly component to the surface winds the entire time. If that's correct, and surface winds remain northerly the entire time we may catch a surprise.

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I don't remember the exact setup, but there was a storm on Dec 5, 2003 that was a "thread the needle" event for N&W of the cities. I got on the MARC train in Germantown that morning with 6-7 inches of snow on the ground and still snowing, and watched the snow quickly dwindle with each stop until I got off at Union Station to WET ground! That was one storm where being N&W really mattered.

You don't have to go all the way back to 2003-- last December 5 was an elevation dependent event as well. A dusting around DCA, an inch or two inside the city, up to 7" in NW Montgomery County.

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yeah it's kind of evil. im in full out hope for explosive development/convective banding/create its own cold air mode.

Ian has finally been broken and gone :weenie:

Ji...if we get anything but rain here in Leesburg I would be shocked and will never post again.

So...you'd be shocked if you ever post here again?

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Gotta love that GFS keeps a northerly component to the surface winds the entire time. If that's correct, and surface winds remain northerly the entire time we may catch a surprise.

i still like my chances for now even if the odds are weighted rainy. in a marginal situation you're not going to know the specifics till near the end.

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