mappy Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 DT's maps: he hasn't forecast one storm right for my location in 3 years. I'm also a fan that on one map Area B is mostly rain, but on the second he decribes it as starting as snow/sleet then rain, then back to snow. So... um, should I expect mostly rain or rain/snow? WHICH IS IT DT!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Hey there...long time lurker here....hopefully everyone gets feet of snow!! Hey lurker, what's your location!?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I'm also a fan that on one map Area B is mostly rain, but on the second he decribes it as starting as snow/sleet then rain, then back to snow. So... um, should I expect mostly rain or rain/snow? WHICH IS IT DT!?! He will clarify with his 1am Jan 26 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Didn't he already issue a forecast for this event? Wouldn't that make this a "second call"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Didn't he already issue a forecast for this event? Wouldn't that make this a "second call"? He has a 1st guess then he puts out a 1st forecast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Didn't he already issue a forecast for this event? Wouldn't that make this a "second call"? I asked that question on SV (my only posts there lol) and I was told that he goes First Guess -> First Call -> Final Call. And yes I do think it's silly to have your second map be your First Call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 I love how DT completely dismisses the GFS on his site Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Vort placement looks identical to 6z through 30hr...ever so slightly more ridging out ahead of the storm. Thus 850 temps are a smidge higher. Smidge is a technical term, BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 12Z GFS is faster with the trough then the NAM. Has the nuetral trough at the Mississippi where as the NAM has it positively tilted back into Texas. Edit: Sorry looked at the wrong map. Gfs does look a little faster though with less of a positive tilt at 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 To clear up the DT mess, here's how his call goes First Outlook First Guess First Supposition Second Guess Second Supposition First AmericanWx Mets Bash Second AmericanWx Bash First Call Second Call Last Call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 stronger closed low and more neg tilted this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 At 42hr...500mb is closed off, which it wasn't by 48hr on 6z. Tilt of the trough looks the same. 850 temps the same. Surface low a bit farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Well the GFS looks about the same so far with surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0 near dc the entire time sw va gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS @ 54 is definitely faster with the trough then the NAM and looks close to phasing around the Eastern Shore of MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 0 near dc the entire time sw va gets crushed What's odd is, it has that classic bend in the isobars...i.e redevelopment without a cold High to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Light snow into DC and Baltimore by 12z Wed morning. 850 and surface 0 lines on top of I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 To clear up the DT mess, here's how his call goes First Outlook First Guess First Supposition Second Guess Second Supposition First AmericanWx Mets Bash Second AmericanWx Bash First Call Second Call Last Call You forgot: Response to Busting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whoa..is it me or does th e GFS look pretty decent 54-66 hours? 850: Surface is still a shade over freezing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whoa..is it me or does th e GFS look pretty decent 54-66 hours? 850: 54hrs looks like the warm point. Looks like probably +2 850 temps at that time. Total precip looks somewhere around 0.5-0.6" for DC and Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is a nice hit for the Northwest suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Whoa..is it me or does th e GFS look pretty decent 54-66 hours? 850: Surface is still a shade over freezing very close so any shift is either or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 GFS is a nice hit for the Northwest suburbs. With the Dynamic cooling at around 60, the cities would even get a good 3-5'' total of heavy wet snow this run. Don't need the surface temps to be below freezing to switch over in this kinda of situation. Overall, a good run though all things considered, the cold came sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmondsnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like central Virginia could possibly get heavy backlash snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 very close so any shift is either or Really...I think we can overcome surface temps that are +1-2C with some dynamics, but not if the whole column from surface to 850mb is +2. So, probably light snow (dusting-1"?) followed by about .25" of rain and then another 2-3" of snow in the cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Surface winds remain northerly in DC the entire time on GFS. The upper levels shift around, but at the surface it's mostly northerly winds the entire time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 The idea of that "second" precip max west of the storm may not be far fetched like I thought. Here's the RGEM at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SNO Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Shen Valley is $$$...6+ storm looking more likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Total precip doesn't look to bad with decent amounts into the colder air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted January 24, 2011 Share Posted January 24, 2011 Looks like DCA/BWI dont get above 35 degrees. The max is like a degree or two cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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