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The Psuhoffman Storm


Ji

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54 more hours to go. I think high pressure is helping out just enough plus heavy qpf. I could see heavy snow but when there is a lull..light rain

53.5 hours & counting. ;). Only concern, there is a clear westward trend right now, we don't have much wiggle room westward.. this thing cannot budge.

This could be a tree snapper if it takes the right track.

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Looking at the upper air I am not sure I buy the surface. Looks like the upper air is close to being vertically stacked and yet it has an elongated low from the upper level support extending to the northeast which continues that look through 78 hours. Looks like the NAM is undecided whether it wants to capture it or miss and let it go OTS. With those temp profiles that the NAM is already showing I think a capture would mean a very nice surprise for a lot more people on this board with colder temps to the south and east and heavier precip reaching farther to the west.

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06Z GFS has the 850 north and west of the cities for most of the event with it dropping down to maybe giving a quick shot of snow at the end for them. To the north and west the surface temps are marginal for most with the heavier precip really never reaching them.

Edit: With this track and setup if this were a little colder upstairs and on the surface it would be a major hit for the cities and south.

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Just for the record, they get that kind of weather quite a bit...its not all that incredible to be honest.

Yep ...that's actually mild for them

Again, a bit off topic, but to clarify:

That ob showed temps 30 degrees below average. -33 with a 71 mph wind is pretty incredible. Antarctica might be one of the few places you would see that. Himalayas. The next time we have a low that is 30 degrees below average, let me know how mild that is.

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Again, a bit off topic, but to clarify:

That ob showed temps 30 degrees below average. -33 with a 71 mph wind is pretty incredible. Antarctica might be one of the few places you would see that. Himalayas. The next time we have a low that is 30 degrees below average, let me know how mild that is.

But he wasn't referring to the DC area/Mid-Atlantic - he meant it's mild for Mt Washington in probably a slightly exaggerated sense. Sure it's extreme weather but very very common for them. I think the record is 231mph wind gust there as well.

I think the Mt. Wash observers probably would not blink an eye at those conditions but they are impressive nonetheless!

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54 more hours to go. I think high pressure is helping out just enough plus heavy qpf. I could see heavy snow but when there is a lull..light rain

You could be correct.

My track record for this storm is horrid but that will not shut me up...

...time to hug a blend of the NAM and GFS.

PSUHoffman could get 10" in the upcountry of Carroll County.

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